[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060546
SWODY1
SPC AC 060544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 S RAL 35
NNE OXR 25 NNW SBA 25 SE PRB 30 NW BFL 40 ESE FAT 45 WNW TVL 40 SSE
LMT 55 W BNO 35 ENE BKE 30 W BTM 15 NE SHR 10 E 81V 30 SSE REJ 45
SSW BIS 40 SW DVL 85 NE DVL ...CONT... 40 NW IWD STC MHE 15 N IML 55
S GLD 25 ESE DDC 40 ENE CNU 20 SSE SPI 20 NNW IND 20 W CMH 35 S CAK
25 SE PSB 20 ENE NEL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MEANINGFUL WLY FLOW CONFINED TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY.  EVEN
SO...SUBTLE LARGE SCALE FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL DRYING FROM THE TN
VALLEY...SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON TSTM DOWNDRAFTS.  MANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED FRIDAY
WITHIN THIS PLUME APPARENTLY HAD FAIRLY EFFICIENT WET DOWNBURSTS. 
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF LATER
TODAY ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP...APPROACHING 8-9C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SLOWLY MOISTEN MID
LEVELS RESULTING IN HIGHER RH VALUES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.  THIS
PROCESS MAY TAKE A FEW DAYS BEFORE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
MODIFIED SUFFICIENTLY TO LESSEN THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.  IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND PROPAGATE SWWD...INTENSIFYING AND
DISSIPATING RATHER QUICKLY WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FROM THE FL
PENINSULA...WWD ACROSS THE SRN U.S. INTO THE DESERT SW
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM INTO NRN AZ. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER
AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT AN OUTLOOK.

..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 08/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.