[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051601
SWODY1
SPC AC 051600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL
25 SSW PMD 35 E SAC 45 E RBL 30 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 45 ENE ACV 20 SW
MFR 35 NNE LMT 55 SW BNO 55 NNW OWY 45 E OWY ENV 35 N DPG 35 NE EVW
30 N LAR 45 WSW SNY 15 SSE AKO 45 WNW EHA 30 SSE DDC 25 N SZL 20 NW
CMI 10 NNE FDY 25 WSW BFD 25 SE UCA 25 WNW EFK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C.  IN ADDITION...H85
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A COUPLE DEGREES AT MFL DURING THE PAST 24
HRS.  THIS HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD SUPPORT 2500+ J/KG
MLCAPES BY THE MID AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL.  MCV FROM
YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE E-CENTRAL COAST. 
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FEATURE AND SUBSEQUENT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS JUST INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. 
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...STORMS WILL
REMAIN PULSE IN NATURE AND LIMIT ANY PERSISTENT SEVERE THREAT FROM
INDIVIDUAL STORMS.

...SRN APPALACHIANS/TN RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR SAG VERY SLOWLY SWD
TODAY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. IN
ADDITION...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER AL WITH ASSOCIATED -8C T0 -9C MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.  THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT STRONG
HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT TO FOCUS STORMS WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NWRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
SSWWD INTO NRN VA WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG
HEATING AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY SUPPORTING STRONG
INSTABILITY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS
THE PHI-NYC CORRIDOR.  CONTINUED HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AOB 20 KT. 
HOWEVER...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND FOCUS NEAR SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT LOW PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...AZ...
ELY FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST TODAY WITH H85 TO H5 WINDS IN THE 15-20
KT RANGE.  MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES WWD MOVING IMPULSE JUST
SOUTH OF TUS WHICH MAY FOCUS CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN
AZ INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL
OCCUR. THOUGH OVERALL EASTERLIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THEY SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL GIVEN
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.