[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051258
SWODY1
SPC AC 051256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CZZ 15 E RAL
25 SSW PMD 50 SE FAT 50 WNW TVL 30 S SVE 55 NNW LOL 15 W BAM 70 ENE
U31 20 E ELY 45 WNW U24 30 W OGD 20 NNW EVW 20 NNE LAR 25 WNW SNY 45
NNW GLD 40 NE LAA 45 ESE LAA 10 E DDC 40 W EMP 25 NE SZL 20 NW CMI
FDY 40 NE CLE 20 S SYR 35 NW PBG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
VERY WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE LWR 48 THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS REMAINS WELL TO THE N FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO CNTRL QUEBEC.  AT THE SURFACE...LARGE
ANTICYCLONE WITH CONTAINING MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE S/E ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP/INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME HEATING
OVER MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF THE U.S...WHERE FAIRLY MOIST PROFILES
ARE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.5-2 INCHES.
THREE AREAS OF POSSIBLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONCENTRATED
AND/OR LOCALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY INCLUDE:

(1) TN VLY TO SRN APLCNS...WHERE UNINHIBITED HEATING WILL OCCUR IN
DEFORMATION ZONE IN NE QUADRANT OF WEAK SW AL UPR LOW. COUPLED WITH
 TERRAIN INFLUENCES...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SLOWLY-MOVING CLUSTERS
OF STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

(2) SRN AZ...SLIGHT READJUSTMENT OF UPR PATTERN MAY YIELD SLIGHTLY
FASTER UNIDIRECTIONAL ESELY FLOW OVER REGION RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. 
SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPR LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER WRN AZ/SE CA.  OVERALL
PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW WWD-PROPAGATING MOVING
STRONG STORMS...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG
DOWNBURSTS.

(3) FL...LOW LEVEL DRYING AIR APPARENT IN 12Z MIA/EYW RAOBS LIKELY
REFLECTS INFLUENCE OF LAST EVENING'S CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER
REGION.  GREATER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN PART
OF THE STATE...WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR SCTD TO BKN STORM DEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY/SRN PLNS.  ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ARCING NW INTO THE
CNTRL GULF CST...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK UPR LOW.  PULSE
ENVIRONMENT COULD YIELD ONE OR TWO DOWNBURSTS.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.