[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051946
SWODY1
SPC AC 051944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL
25 SSW PMD 35 E SAC 45 E RBL 30 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 45 ENE ACV 20 SW
MFR 35 NNE LMT 55 SW BNO 55 NNW OWY 45 E OWY ENV 35 N DPG 35 NE EVW
30 NNW LAR CYS 25 ESE FCL 25 NNE COS 30 NNW TAD 30 NE CAO 45 WSW P28
25 E HUT 30 NNW SZL 15 NW MIE 15 ESE MFD 30 N POU 35 WNW AUG 40 NW
CAR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO NJ AND NRN VA HAS BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  THIS HAS
SUPPORTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
FROM CNTRL MAINE ACROSS SERN NY INTO NERN PA.  OTHER STORMS HAVE
BEEN FORMING ALONG SEABREEZES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /AOA 30 KTS/ EXISTS NORTH OF ABOUT
KBGM-KBOS.  TSTMS N OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR ORGANIZATION /LINE SEGMENTS/ AND ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  FARTHER S...FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS MUCH
WEAKER...THOUGH GIVEN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS.  ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

...FL PENINSULA...
EAST-WEST COAST SEABREEZES HAVE BECOME QUITE ACTIVE WITH TSTMS THIS
AFTN...OWING TO MINUS 8C H5 TEMPERATURES ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  AN
ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN VARIOUS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.

...SWRN DESERTS...
SFC OBS ACROSS SRN AZ SHOW THAT ELY FLOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS AND HAS DOMINATED THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE DESERTS.  THIS FLOW IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH TIED TO VORT CENTER NEAR HERMOSILLO.  IN FACT...IT
APPEARS A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER/COLUMN EXISTS PER 24-HOUR CHANGE IN
SURFACE DEW POINTS/GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT.  GIVEN THESE
TRENDS AND THE FACT THAT THE LATEST SREF IS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE.

..RACY.. 08/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.