[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050535
SWODY1
SPC AC 050533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CZZ 15 E RAL
25 SSW PMD 50 SE FAT 50 WNW TVL 30 S SVE 55 NNW LOL 15 W BAM 70 ENE
U31 20 E ELY 45 WNW U24 30 W OGD 20 NNW EVW 20 NNE LAR 25 WNW SNY 45
NNW GLD 40 NE LAA 45 ESE LAA 10 E DDC 40 W EMP 25 NE SZL 20 NW CMI
FDY 40 NE CLE 20 S SYR 35 NW PBG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...ESPECIALLY WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE PERIOD.  00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF
THE U.S...AND ACROSS THE ERN U.S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES OBSERVED...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.5-2
INCHES...AND NO SIGNIFICANT ZONES OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING.

RESULTANT CONDITIONS FAVOR SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY
ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY...SRN PLAINS REGION.  ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ARCING NWWD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT
SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST NEAR SRN MS.  MANY OF THESE
STORMS WILL FORM AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY...FORCING COMPLEX STORM
INTERACTIONS THAT COULD RESULT IN ONE OR TWO DOWNBURSTS. 
HOWEVER...AREAL EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF THIS TYPE OF STORM APPEARS
INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE.

FARTHER WEST...AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NM
INTO SRN NV WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
21-00Z.  STORM MOTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORS PROPAGATION TOWARD LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHERE MODEST TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS SHOULD ENHANCE GUSTY
WINDS WITH STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.