[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050051
SWODY1
SPC AC 050050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2005

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE PBG 25 SE UCA
30 SSW BGM 30 W MGW 20 SW UNI 40 WNW SDF 10 SSW MDH 35 E UNO 50 NNW
LIT 40 NNW ELD 25 SE ELD 30 SSW GLH 30 SW TUP 15 SW HSV 45 ESE CHA
10 ESE AND 25 E CAE 40 ENE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SAN 15 WNW NID 55 S
TPH 50 WNW P38 20 S MLF 45 SE U24 45 SSE EVW 30 SSW RKS 45 E CAG 25
WSW COS 20 SE RTN 20 ENE CAO 45 NNE GCK 25 NW FNB 20 SE BRL 30 NNW
BEH 35 SE OSC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
WHILE STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  MUCH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF HIGH LEVEL WIND SHIFT IS VOID OF MEANINGFUL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...AND BY EARLY THIS EVENING WAS OCCURRING WITHIN MAINLY
MARGINAL-WEAK INSTABILITY.

...IL/IND...

ILX SOUNDING FROM CNTRL IL INDICATES LITTLE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
TROUGH AT THAT LATITUDE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ORGANIZED
SOMEWHAT ALONG FOCUSED WIND SHIFT.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL...BUT OVERALL
TRENDS SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
...AZ/SERN CA...

SCT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CA...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ.  TUS
SOUNDING THIS EVENING SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD DRIFT NWWD ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS FAVOR AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS BENEATH STRONGER PRECIP
CORES. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN CA...BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW.
 TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION FAVOR LITTLE MORE THAN SCT TSTMS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

..DARROW.. 08/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.