[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 042141
SWODY1
SPC AC 042139

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2005

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SAN NID TPH 55 WSW
ELY 10 SE ELY DPG 45 WSW MLD 35 NNW PIH 10 NNE DLN BZN BIL DGW BFF
10 NNE IML 20 N EAR 50 SW FOD 30 NE MSN 30 WNW MBL 40 SSE ANJ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...
19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN LWR MI SWWD ACROSS
LM...NWRN IL...NRN MO THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.  EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED
HEATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT FROM
PARTS OF SRN LWR MI SWWD INTO NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1500-2000
J/KG.  VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER NRN IL...WITH ADDITIONAL ONGOING STORMS INTENSIFYING
ACROSS NRN LWR MI.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT TSTMS
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVE.  CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO 30-40 KTS OF FLOW ALOFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO
THE FLOW REGIME COULD LEAD TO ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.  WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...DESERT SW...
STANDARD MONSOON REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SW.  EXPECT
TSTMS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SRN CA TODAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV
ACROSS SWRN AZ.  FARTHER E...RESIDUAL MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS MADE
FOR A SLOW START TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN AZ...BUT
LATEST VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CBS BEGINNING TO FORM.  ANY TSTM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF SCNTRL AZ LATER IN THE
EVENING...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MORE OF A THREAT.

..RACY.. 08/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.