[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040549
SWODY1
SPC AC 040547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ACY 25 NE BWI
40 N RIC 50 WSW ORF 15 NNE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S RAL 30 ENE EDW
40 N TPH 55 WSW ELY 55 SE ELY 30 WNW U24 45 WSW MLD 15 NNW IDA 30
ENE DLN 35 E LVM 25 SSE SHR 30 NNE SNY 40 E BUB 20 SW FOD 25 SW CWA
80 ENE MQT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL LAG SFC FRONTAL
POSITION SOMEWHAT.  RESULTANT WARM SECTOR PROFILES APPEAR LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED...ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLY ALONG PREFRONTAL
CONFLUENT ZONE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LOWER MI.

LATEST THINKING IS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE MODES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD.  EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MI WITH AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD...LIMITING DAYTIME SUNSHINE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MULTI-CELL TSTM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR
PERHAPS SOME HAIL BEFORE SPREADING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO ONTARIO.

...MO TO TX PANHANDLE...

FARTHER SW...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY/SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT POST FRONTAL
COOLING/MOISTENING EXPECTED WITHIN UPSLOPE REGION OF CO INTO WRN KS.
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MORE DISCRETE WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE NEAR THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS ERN KS INTO IL.  WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS...HOWEVER
STRONG SFC HEATING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE MORE
EFFICIENT IN POTENTIALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS.  SWD PROGRESSION OF COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.