[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041213
SWODY1
SPC AC 041212

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2005

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ACY 35 NE NHK 35
NE RIC 40 ENE RWI 20 ENE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 25 SSE RAL
25 N RAL 30 E EDW 40 N TPH 55 WSW ELY 55 SE ELY 30 WNW U24 45 WSW
MLD 15 NNW IDA 30 ENE DLN 35 E LVM 40 W SHR 45 NNE CPR 20 S BFF 25 N
IML 20 E LBF 35 ENE BUB 20 SW FOD 30 WSW CWA 20 SE RHI 20 NNE CMX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA.  TAIL END OF TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. 
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...MID MS
AND OH VALLEYS TODAY.  FRONT SHOULD LIE ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN
OK...NORTHERN MO...CENTRAL LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG/.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT.  ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER PARTS OF MI/IND/OH
WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT.  THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION WILL BE WEAK WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS.

...SOUTHWEST...
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
CA/NV/AZ.  WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED IN
NATURE.

..HART/JEWELL.. 08/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.