[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040056
SWODY1
SPC AC 040054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
EAU 45 ESE EAU 30 SSE LSE 30 SSE MCW 35 N OMA 35 SW EAR 35 S IML 20
S SNY 25 ESE AIA 35 SSW ANW 35 WNW YKN 45 E ATY 30 NW EAU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 10 SSW ARB
40 WNW FWA 30 SE MMO 20 E OTM 35 NNW FNB 40 WSW HLC 30 NE TAD 35 ENE
ONM 15 NE ALM 35 SE ROW 40 WNW PVW 20 NNW CDS 10 NNE DUA 10 NNE ELD
10 W GWO 30 NNW GAD 35 ENE 5I3 10 WNW SSU 20 E ROA 15 N RDU 35 WNW
HSE ...CONT... 30 E DOV 30 SW IPT 25 NW ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SAN 15 SE NID
55 NNE NID 65 SW ELY 35 SW ENV 20 E PIH 30 ENE DLN 30 N LVM 30 NW
BIL 60 NNE SHR 60 SSE 81V 55 NE CDR 35 E PIR 45 NNW AXN 30 W INL
...CONT... 25 N PBG 10 N BID.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN PORTIONS OF SD.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
ORGANIZING WITH LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY MOVING EWD AT ROUGHLY
30KT...AND TAKING ON CHARACTERISTICS OF A SQUALL LINE. IF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN THE WAKE OF SQUALL
LINE...FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY INCREASE ENHANCING STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. 
OTHERWISE...SOME HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

FARTHER SW...BROADER ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ACROSS NEB
WHERE NWD DRIFTING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL
SURGE. IT APPEARS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO NERN NEB WILL SOON
EXPERIENCE DEEP CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YET TO OVERTURN PER
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM LBF AND OMA.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT WITH TIME THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP AN EWD COMPONENT
AND SPREAD TOWARD THE MO RIVER.  LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT.

...SWRN U.S...

NUMEROUS SMALL THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AZ INTO SERN CA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MEANDER
ABOUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AS
EVENING PROGRESSES.  00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGER CORES COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS DISSIPATE WITHIN
PULSE-TYPE ENVIRONMENT.

..DARROW.. 08/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.