[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031613
SWODY1
SPC AC 031611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN
MKG DBQ OLU MCK AKO FCL 25 NE LAR 55 W CDR 15 NW RAP 20 WNW MBG FAR
HIB 50 SE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SAN 10 NW RAL
25 ENE EDW 20 SSE TPH 20 ENE ENV 15 NNW BYI 50 SSW 27U 60 WNW GTF 20
W HVR 15 NE GGW ISN 25 NW P24 75 NW DVL ...CONT... EFK 15 E PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW JFK 40 ESE AVP
25 N AVP 25 NNE FKL 15 S FWA 10 WNW STL 40 NW POF 25 NE MEM 45 ENE
HSV 30 SE LOZ 40 SW MGW 25 SW MRB 20 NE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 35 WNW ROW
35 NW GDP 15 SW MAF 40 NE ABI 35 SW DUA 35 WSW PGO 15 SE FYV 25 WNW
SGF 25 ESE STJ 40 W HLC 35 SSE LHX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD TO NRN
HIGH PLAINS...

....UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF
CANADA WHILE WEAKER REFLECTION TRANSLATES EWD INTO NRN PLAINS TODAY.
 OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED HOWEVER RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAS SPREAD ENEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8C/KM COMMON.

OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAS PUSHED SEWD AND EXTENDS FROM SERN
MN INTO NRN NEB. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD ACROSS
NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL EXTEND BY LATE TONIGHT FROM NRN IA SWWD TO
SERN CO.

MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES AHEAD OF THE LEADING
SURFACE  BOUNDARY INTO IA AND WI.  ADDITIONALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WWD ACROSS SD.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF INITIATION OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE AREAS
WOULD SEEM TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

UPSLOPE N/NELY FLOW INTO WRN SD ALONG WITH MID LEVEL COOLING WITH
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER E STRONG HEATING WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN CAP
TO ALLOW STORM INITIATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING VICINITY
OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS WI/MN.  WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KT A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WINDS WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO GIVEN THE
WARM LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR.

DURING THE EVENING ONE OR MORE MCS'S WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM SD EWD
INTO WI ENHANCING A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

...NERN U.S...
NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING TODAY ACROSS
NERN U.S....AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT
CORRIDOR OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM NERN NY/VT SEWD INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND THRU THE AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY
SEVERE RISK AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

...SWRN U.S...
MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS FROM AZ NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES.  A FEW
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT EXPERIENCE ACTIVE CONVECTION
TUESDAY PM.  WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 08/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.