[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031223
SWODY1
SPC AC 031222

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN
MKG DBQ OLU MCK AKO FCL 25 NE LAR 55 W CDR RAP MBG FAR HIB 50 SE
ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 WNW FST
50 SE MAF 25 NNW ABI 35 SW ADM 40 S HRO 45 SSW JBR 35 NW CHA 20 WSW
5I3 35 E PKB 30 ESE TOL 25 NW SPI 30 S P35 25 WSW HLC 25 SSE LHX 25
NE 4CR 15 W ELP ...CONT... 20 NNW SAN 10 NW RAL 25 ENE EDW 20 SSE
TPH 20 ENE ENV 15 NNW BYI 50 SSW 27U 30 N GTF 20 W HVR 50 ESE HVR 10
SE SDY 15 ESE P24 75 NW DVL ...CONT... 35 NNE PBG 15 SE EWB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SD/NEB/IA...
RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES OF CANADA THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS.  STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/IA...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR. 
NEVERTHELESS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SD...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN ALONG/BEHIND BOUNDARY. 
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATES A THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN MN/NORTHWEST IA DURING
THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN NEB INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL IA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NOSE OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING /SURFACE TEMPS
OVER 100F POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WILL YIELD VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER
AND WILL ESSENTIALLY ELIMINATE CAP.  HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.  THESE
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING...SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARD WI OVERNIGHT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND
SOUTHEAST WY.  AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. 
ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SUGGESTING A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.  INTENSE
STORMS MAY PROGRESS INTO SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHWEST KS BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST STATES AGAIN TODAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER CELLS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR UNLIKELY TODAY.

..HART/JEWELL.. 08/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.