[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030534
SWODY1
SPC AC 030532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
APN 30 NW MKG 15 NNE DBQ 30 ENE OLU 20 NW EAR 45 ESE AKO 25 SSW AKO
10 NW FCL 30 ENE LAR 40 SE DGW 35 W PHP 45 ENE MBG 20 E FAR 45 ESE
BJI 50 SE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 WNW FST
60 SE MAF 25 NNW ABI 35 SW ADM 40 S HRO 45 SSW JBR 35 NW CHA 20 WSW
5I3 35 E PKB 30 ESE TOL 25 NW SPI 30 S P35 25 WSW HLC 25 SSE LHX 25
NE 4CR 15 W ELP ...CONT... 20 NNW SAN 10 NNW RAL 20 NNE DAG 60 E U31
20 ENE ENV 15 NNW BYI 50 SSW 27U 30 N GTF 20 W HVR 50 ESE HVR 10 SE
SDY 15 ESE P24 75 NW DVL ...CONT... 35 NNE PBG 15 SE EWB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO
UPR MS VLY TO WRN/UPR GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WCNTRL CANADA WILL
CONTINUE ESEWD ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE IS LARGE
ENOUGH THAT STRONGER WLY FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE NRN PLAINS STATES AND UPR MS VLY. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD
ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO A HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM
SD/NEB...ENEWD ACROSS IA AND SRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...A BROAD REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WILL STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN/SERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
A BROAD SWATH OF WEAK ELY FLOW AT MID LEVEL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DECAYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WILL EXIST FROM THE TN VLY...WWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS...TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...UPR MS VLY...WRN GREAT LAKES...
CLUSTERS OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN THIS MORNING WITHIN UNSTABLE LARGE SCALE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH OVER CANADA. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS MN AND WI THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MAY STRENGTHEN AS GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION FROM WI ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI.

MEANWHILE...STRONGLY CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM SD/NEB EWD
ACROSS SRN MN AND IA WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT.
SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ON AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE
HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT EXPANDING AND
DEEPENING COLD POOLS WITH OUTFLOW FURTHER ENHANCING MESOSCALE
CONVERGENCE...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF LARGER SCALE
BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE FROM SERN SD AND
NRN NEB ACROSS SWRN MN AND NWRN IA IF STORM MERGERS BECOME ALIGNED
NORMAL TO STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW.

..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 08/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.