[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030107
SWODY1
SPC AC 030105

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
ANJ 15 SSW IMT 30 S IWD 45 SW DLH 40 WSW AXN 15 E PIR 15 NNE RAP 30
NW GCC 45 ENE COD 40 ENE WEY 30 SW LVM 30 N BZN 35 SE GTF 50 ENE GTF
40 SSE HVR 65 ESE HVR 35 SSE GGW 20 WNW SDY 45 NNW P24 70 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 25 N RAL
70 E TPH 35 ESE OWY 50 NW SUN 40 N MSO 30 NE CTB ...CONT... 55 NNE
MTC 30 W HTL 30 ENE CID 10 WSW SUX 25 SW LBF 45 WNW GLD 40 SW RTN 45
N ALM 75 WNW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BOS 20 SSE GFL
10 SSE UCA 10 S ITH 40 ESE BFD 15 NW DUJ 10 W ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW DRT 30 SSW SJT
10 WNW BWD 20 NE SEP 15 E DAL 20 SW TXK 35 NE ELD 30 ENE GLH 10 SSW
CBM 20 SE BHM 15 NNE LGC 50 NE MCN 40 SE AGS 30 SSW CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS...TO THE UPR GREAT LAKES...

...DAKOTAS/MN...
A SMALL SEVERE STORM CLUSTER HAS FORMED NEAR LEE-TROUGH FRONTAL ZONE
INTERSECTION ACROSS NRN ND. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE STRUGGLING AGAINST
STRONG INHIBITION NEAR SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH OVER NRN SD.

MAGNITUDE OF INHIBITION AND CURRENTLY LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
FOR UPWARD MOTION LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO STORM EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MT...AND AN INCREASE MASS TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION...
ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...OR AT LEAST SUSTAIN
ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIMITED
SHEAR SHOULD BE OFFSET BY STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO MAINTAIN LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND THREATS...AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

...MT...
SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN/SERN MT THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE. AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MEAN LAYER FLOW
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SUGGESTS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
WAS CRESTING THE UPR RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NRN MN. THIS IMPULSE MAY
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN SEWD ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. THESE AREAS ARE ON
THE EDGE OF STRONGER INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR MASS ACROSS
THE PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. CAPE AND SHEAR ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES
COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND...PERHAPS
MERGING INTO A SMALL MCS LATER TONIGHT.

...LWR CO RIVER VLY...
POORLY ORGANIZED BUT STOUT STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS SRN...CNTRL...AND NWRN
AZ THIS EVENING. MORE ISOLATED CELLS WILL ALSO PERSIST A FEW MORE
HOURS FROM SRN CA TO SRN NV. VERY WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THIS
PULSE/MULTICELL ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AND
PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL SUBSIDE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

...NORTHEAST...
LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECLINE IN
OVERALL STORM INTENSITY FROM NY TO ME THIS EVENING. REMAINING
CONVECTION AHEAD OF NWLY-FLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ONLY POSE A
LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF A STRONG WIND GUST...OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 08/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.