[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021938
SWODY1
SPC AC 021937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM 3HT OLF 70
NNE OLF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S
PSM RUT MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW DSM 45 WSW ALO
35 NW MLI 10 E BRL 25 NW UIN 20 WSW IRK 40 NNE STJ 55 SE OMA 50 WNW
DSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MTC 30 SSW IMT
45 N EAU 40 NNW MKT 10 SSE MHN 15 SE LIC 35 SSE RTN 40 NE 4CR 35 SSW
DMN ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 25 SE ABI 15 SE MWL 40 S MLC 30
NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 35 WNW CAE 20 S FLO 20 NW OAJ
35 E RIC 20 E CHO 10 NNE HKY 15 W TRI 10 NNW HLG 45 WSW ERI
...CONT... 50 S CRP 45 S LRD ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 35 N
BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS...

...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST...
SATL INDICATES THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS QUICKLY MOVED
INTO ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 21Z.
STRONG TSTMS ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH WITH STRONG WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN.  VERTICAL SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PER CARIBOU RADAR.

FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE COAST OF ME BY
22Z.  18Z MESOANALYSIS...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO SHOW A RESERVOIR OF
MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING NEWD UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY/SRN QUEBEC
AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING AGAIN OWING TO HEATING BENEATH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.  CU STREETS OBSERVED IN VSBL SATL WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP INTO CBS AND DROP SEWD TOWARD NRN PARTS OF NY/VT/NH LATER
THIS AFTN...VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z NAM SOLUTION.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN ME INTO NRN NY STATE.  MAIN
SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.  HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS.  FARTHER N...LOW-TOPPED CB/S NEAR
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND AS THEY SHIFT SSEWD INTO NRN ME INTO THE EARLY EVENING
GIVEN CLEARING/HEATING OVER THIS REGION.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW IS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SD NEAR MOBRIDGE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO SERN ND/NERN SD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING
ENEWD ACROSS WY.  AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL ND AND ERN MT. AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOW
OVERSPREADING THE DAKOTAS MAY DELAY ONSET OF STORMS A FEW HOURS. 
HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE/HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z.  MOST
LIKELY REGION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND AND NRN SD.  WITH EXPECTED
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STORMS
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS.  ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING OVER SRN MT/NRN
WY AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  ONE OR TWO MCS/S MAY EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT INTO
THE NRN PLAINS.  THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY LARGE HAIL
INTO THE EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AFTER DARK
WITH LARGE HAIL BECOMING PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT.

..EVANS.. 08/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.