[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021214
SWODY1
SPC AC 021212

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 10 N 81V 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM
3HT 80 E LWT OLF 70 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG
55 S TPH 30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH
25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 30 WNW BWD 35
SSW DAL 10 SW TXK 30 NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 15 S BWG
35 WNW CAE 20 S FLO 25 WNW OAJ 40 E RWI 45 S RIC 25 NNW GSO 35 ESE
TRI 10 NW TRI 30 E PKB 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC 30 NNE BEH
20 SW RFD 20 N UIN 50 S P35 20 NNW MHK 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 40 W
RTN 10 NE ABQ 35 SSW DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...SRN MT/ND/SD/MN...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
TODAY...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR
INITIATION IS FROM CENTRAL ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING...WHERE
GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.  FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS AREA.

OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER SOUTHERN MT.  LARGE HAIL
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.  RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS.

...WESTERN MT/WY...
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF MONSOONAL PLUME WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MT/NORTHWEST WY. INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROMOTE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER
STORMS.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPULSE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.  THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY ORGANIZED STORMS.  HOWEVER...DESPITE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...RELATIVELY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY LIMIT
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG/.  PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF NY/VT/NH/ME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF AIR MASS
CAN BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME WARRANTED.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF AZ/SRN CA/SRN NV
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. 
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW.

..HART/GUYER.. 08/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.