[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021621
SWODY1
SPC AC 021619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 10 N 81V 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM
3HT 80 E LWT OLF 70 NNE OLF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S
PSM RUT 25 WNW PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 20 SSE CAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG
55 S TPH 30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH
25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 25 SE ABI 15 SE
MWL 40 S MLC 30 NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 15 S BWG 35
WNW CAE 20 S FLO 20 NW OAJ 35 E RIC 20 E CHO 10 NNE HKY 15 W TRI 20
ESE PKB 10 NNW HLG 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC 30 NNE BEH 20 SW
RFD 20 N UIN 50 S P35 20 NNW MHK 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 35 SSE RTN 40
NE 4CR 35 SSW DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MT EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO
NWRN MN...

...NEW ENGLAND...
STG NWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN W/V
IMAGERY TRACKS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ME THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S AND A FEW HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF
IMPULSE...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR
1000 J/KG AT 16Z.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN ME AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS IN FAST MOVING STORMS ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES.

TRAILING PORTION OF TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER S INTO NRN VT/NH DURING AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS
LIKELY AS 40-50 KT OF NWLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS AREA.


...ERN MT/DAKOTAS/NWRN MN...
STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WRN
CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE STRONGEST FORCING AND WINDS WITH
TROUGH REMAINS N OF BORDER...30-40 KT OF FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
COOLING WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT INTO NRN PLAINS.  STRONG CAP
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ND WHERE A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
STRONGLY UNSTABLE  AIR MASS IS IN PLACE.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD INTO N CENTRAL MT
WILL BE A FEATURE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT FIRST AND THEN INTO
WRN ND.  WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG EXPECTED BY MID
AFTERNOON OVER ND...ONCE CAP HAS WEAKENED CONDITIONS WITH THE
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. 
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER MT OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE EVENING AS THEY
ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ND.  PRIMARY
THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

...INTERMOUNTAINS AND SWRN U.S...
PLENTIFUL MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS FROM DESERTS OF SERN CA AND AZ
NWD THRU UT/WRN CO INTO WY.  LESS CLOUDINESS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN
MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS MANY AREAS.  WHILE SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK
SRN CA/AZ...20-30 KT OF MID/UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH
MOVING INTO WRN NV DOES INCREASE THREAT OF SEVERE NWD INTO UT/WRN CO
THIS AFTERNOON.  RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 25KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT INTO UT THIS
AFTERNOON.  POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CLUSTERS.  FURTHER S ISOLATED
PULSE SEVERE STILL LIKELY MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS AZ AS STORMS
PROPAGATE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE STRONGLY HEATED LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 08/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.