[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020550
SWODY1
SPC AC 020548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
INL 15 NE FAR 65 SSW FAR 15 S ABR 35 WSW YKN 20 NE BUB 10 S BBW 35
NNE IML 15 ESE SNY BFF 55 WNW CDR 35 S GCC 40 S SHR 40 SSW COD 25
SSE MQM 20 ENE DLN 45 E 3HT 65 SSW GGW 25 NNE OLF 70 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK
40 S ABI 35 NNE ACT 10 SW TXK 25 NW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE
PAH 15 S BWG 35 WNW CAE 30 S FLO 30 W OAJ 25 NNE RWI 55 E DAN 25 NNW
GSO 35 ESE TRI 10 NW TRI 35 E PKB 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC
30 NNE BEH 30 SSE DBQ OTM 35 W P35 30 S BIE 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 40
W RTN 10 NE ABQ 35 SSW DMN ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 55 S TPH
30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH 25 ESE
FCA 50 N FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT/NRN WY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVES FROM THE
NRN/CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE SCNTRL CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN GREAT
PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS MT AND
ND...LOWER HEIGHTS AND DIFFLUENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD EWD
ATOP A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS.

ELSEWHERE...MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
CROSSING ERN CANADA. IN THE WEST...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...FROM THE SWRN DESERTS NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FINALLY...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH/GULF COAST BENEATH A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.

...NRN ROCKIES...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...UPR MS VLY...
LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ROCKIES/SRN MT NEWD TO NRN
ND DURING THE AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS
WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ID/MT/WY AND THEN SPREADING EWD ATOP STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAPPING INVERSION FROM THE
CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT STORM FORMATION BUT ALLOW
FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. FRONTAL ZONE
AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD ACT ON
THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY NEAR THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...FROM NERN MT
ACROSS ND AND INTO NWRN MN. NUMEROUS TSTMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AND N-S LEE TROUGH IN
THESE AREAS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE NEWD
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS FROM ACTIVITY MERGING ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE EVENING.

DEEP MIXING AND STRONG HEATING WITHIN LEE/THERMAL TROUGH ORIENTED
N-S ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THESE AREAS. WEAK SHEAR BUT HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION
SUGGESTS INTENSE MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAP AND ALONG
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MN/WI. INCREASING MASS CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DARK...COULD FURTHER SUSTAIN SEVERE
HAIL THREAT DESPITE LIMITED SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO
AN MCS OR TWO FROM SD/NEB EWD TO THE UPR MS VLY DURING THE NIGHT.
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...NRN NEW ENGLAND/NERN NY...
DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE WILL BACK SWWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. WEAK DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN NY ACROSS VT/NH AND ME BY
AFTERNOON. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND ENHANCED
MESOSCALE FORCING AND SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF
INTENSE STORMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED IN THIS
OUTLOOK.

...SRN CA/AZ/SRN NV...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INTENSE HEATING WILL AGAIN SUSTAIN WEAKLY
ORGANIZED BUT VIGOROUS TSTMS DRIFTING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
AZ...AND NORTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA. CELL
INTERACTIONS/MERGERS WILL PROMOTE BRIEF INTENSIFICATION WITH
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS RESULTING.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 08/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.