[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020106
SWODY1
SPC AC 020104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
ISN 35 ENE OLF 10 SSW OLF 25 SW GGW 45 NE LWT 10 NW 3HT 40 SW BZN 25
S DLN 35 SSW 27U 65 SW 27U 80 S S80 45 SW S80 40 ENE S80 20 NNE MSO
60 NNE MSO 30 NNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CZZ 45 S DAG 60
E NID 15 SE TPH 35 WSW U31 25 WSW WMC 75 S BNO PDT 40 W PUW 10 NE
GEG 80 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE DVL 35 NE JMS
50 NNW ABR 35 SE MBG 30 W PIR 35 SW PIR 25 WSW 9V9 25 S MHE 25 NNE
SUX 30 WNW DSM 35 S P35 15 ESE FLV 25 SSE HSI 10 SSW EAR 20 NE MCK
20 N GLD 40 ESE LIC 25 W LHX 25 WSW TAD 25 NE SAF 10 ENE ABQ 25 N
TCS 15 E SVC 65 SSW DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BID 35 S POU 30
ESE IPT 20 SW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S OSC 20 SW HTL 30
ENE MTW 35 ESE CWA 35 WNW AUW 10 NE IWD 15 SSE CMX 15 SE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 25 SE HDO
35 S SJT 40 NNE SJT 40 E ABI 20 ESE TYR 25 WSW ELD 65 ENE PBF 30 NNW
DYR 35 NE PAH 35 SW SDF 20 SSW LOZ 15 WNW GSP 15 NW CAE 40 WSW FLO
35 ENE FLO 30 NE EWN 35 NW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ID/MT...

...NRN ROCKIES TO NERN MT...
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO ACT ON HOT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ID
ACROSS MT THIS EVENING. WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A
HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
SUSTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. CURRENT ACTIVITY NOW MOVING NEWD
OVER ID AND SWRN MT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS NEAR A WARM FRONT ZONE ACROSS NERN
MT. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS
AREA AS STRONGER UPPER FORCING MOVES EAST. LATEST GGW SOUNDING
INDICATED THAT STORMS IN THESE REGIME WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.

...ND/SD...
A NUMBER OF STORMS HAVE CONTINUED THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SWRN/SCNTRL ND...WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS OVER WRN AND NCNTRL SD.
THESE CELLS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED NEAR A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE
OVER ND...AND NEAR DRYLINE/FRONTAL ZONE INTERSECTION OVER SD. A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SCNTRL
U.S. ANTICYCLONE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL JET IS FCST TO INCREASE INTO
THIS REGION TONIGHT AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT 
NEAR THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
HIGH-BASED...RAP SOUNDING SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG WINDS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A BAND OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NERN CO AND
THE NEB PNHDL. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL FORCING AND WAS OCCURRING IN WEAKER SHEAR AS OPPOSED TO
STORMS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES...RESULTANT LIFT ACROSS THE REGION COULD SUSTAIN THE
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO.

...NORTHEAST...
A COUPLE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF VT/NH/ME AND NY
THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A COUPLE
MORE HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ONGOING CONVECTION...
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER.

...LWR CO RIVER VLY...
AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PULSE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA/NV AND
WRN AZ.

..CARBIN.. 08/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.