[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011940
SWODY1
SPC AC 011938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35
NE PBG 15 NW LCI 25 N ORH BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 30 WNW
ART MSS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
CTB 50 NNE GTF 50 SE GTF 15 WSW LVM 35 NNE IDA 40 ESE SUN 40 WSW SUN
40 NNE BOI 35 SW S80 45 SSW S06 45 NW CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
MLS 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50
S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 20 NNW 4BQ 40 ESE MLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 40 E FST 15
SSW SJT 15 WSW BWD 40 S DUA 10 ENE PBF 20 SSW PAH 45 NNE BWG 25 N
BKW 25 WSW AOO DUJ 10 WSW DTW 30 NW AZO 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 30
ENE FLV 20 S MHK 30 N RSL 40 E GLD 50 ESE LIC 65 S ALS 25 SSW ABQ 40
SSE DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 15 NE NID 50 ESE TVL 20 NW WMC 50 ESE
4LW MHS 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 15 SW DLS 30 SSE EPH 30 NNW 63S
...CONT... 60 NE MOT 45 NE BIS 50 ESE MBG 40 WNW RWF 30 ESE BRD 30
WNW IWD ...CONT... 10 SSE ACY 15 NW BWI 25 NNW GSO 20 NW SOP 35 ESE
ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...NORTHEAST...
OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST/EXPECTED SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCHANGED OVER THIS REGION.  AS OF 19Z MLCAPES ARE NOW AOA 1500 J/KG
WITHIN AN AXIS ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN NY AND VT...WITH A
SEPARATE AXIS OVER SRN ONTARIO.  IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S SUPPORT
MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE-SHEAR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.  THUS...STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO
SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO MORE OF NEW ENGLAND AWAY FROM MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER ERN NY...AND JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

...NRN ROCKIES...
WEAK IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT IS
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO ID THIS AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORM ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FROM WRN WY INTO WRN MT/CENTRAL ID.  ATTM...
EXPECTED COMBINATION OF MODERATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES OVER ID/WRN MT AS LOW
ELEVATION TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 80S.  THUS...EXPECT A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD GENERALLY EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS.  EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION...SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAKER AND LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS SPREADING
EWD AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WRN/CENTRAL WY AND S-CENTRAL MT. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES OVER THIS AREA.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF A LEE TROUGH BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR SERN MT ALONG THE WY/SD
BORDER INTO SERN WY.  WINDS HAVE GONE WLY INTO NERN WY...THOUGH
REMAIN SELY INTO WRN NEB PANHANDLE/WRN SD.  IN ADDITION...MLCAPES
ALREADY AOA 1000 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH AT 19Z.  WITH FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKER CAP EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE NEAR LEE TROUGH OR BECOME SEVERE AS THEY
SPREAD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE MODEST AT BEST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 20-30 KT. 
HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
THREATS OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS.. 08/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.