[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011554
SWODY1
SPC AC 011552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35
NE PBG 15 NW LCI 25 N ORH BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 30 WNW
ART MSS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
CTB 50 NNE GTF 50 SE GTF 15 WSW LVM 35 NNE IDA 40 ESE SUN 40 WSW SUN
40 NNE BOI 35 SW S80 45 SSW S06 45 NW CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
MLS 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50
S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 20 NNW 4BQ 40 ESE MLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 40 E FST 15
SSW SJT 15 WSW BWD 40 S DUA 10 ENE PBF 20 SSW PAH 45 NNE BWG 35 NNE
JKL 15 NNW PKB 30 S CAK 15 SSE JXN 30 NW AZO 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ
OTM 55 SW IRK 35 NNE JLN 25 SW JLN 15 NNE BVO SLN 30 N RSL 40 E GLD
50 ESE LIC 65 S ALS 25 SSW ABQ 40 SSE DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 20 SSW
NID 10 E BIH 10 WSW LOL 65 SSE 4LW 50 E ACV 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 15
SW DLS 30 SSE EPH 30 NNW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MOT 45 NE BIS
50 ESE MBG RWF 50 ENE STC 30 WNW IWD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

...NERN STATES...
WILL CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NY INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS BECOMING MDTLY UNSTABLE AS SFC
TEMPS WARM INTO LOW/MID 80S. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK HOWEVER
30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING/DEVELOPING E/SEWD INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND.  WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG...PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCAL DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...NRN ROCKIES...
S/WV TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS PAC NW INTO SWRN CANADA WITH
40-50KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS INTERIOR OF PAC NW THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE LOW LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT DRY...SOME OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS ID AND WRN MT THIS
AFTERNOON.  STRONG HEATING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN MT.  WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS FROM HIGH BASED
STORMS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS E OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

...HIGH PLAINS ALONG WY/NE/SD BORDER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD WWD INTO ERN WY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 50S THIS AM.  STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN MDT CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KT...A FEW PULSE SEVERE WIND EVENTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN
THE HIGH BASED STORM TYPE PRIOR TO SUNSET.

...SWRN U.S...
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK
OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS.  SHEAR IS VERY WEAK
MOST AREAS...LIMITING THE THREAT.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.