[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011245
SWODY1
SPC AC 011243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
MLS 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50
S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 20 NNW 4BQ 40 ESE MLS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35
NE PBG 15 NW LCI 25 N ORH BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 30 WNW
ART MSS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
CTB 50 NNE GTF 50 SE GTF 15 WSW LVM 35 NNE IDA 40 ESE SUN 40 WSW SUN
40 NNE BOI 35 SW S80 45 SSW S06 45 NW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 40 E FST 30
SE SJT 15 NW TPL 10 WNW GGG 30 ENE PBF 55 W HTS 20 NNW PKB 35 SSW
CAK 45 W TOL 15 E BEH 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 40 SW IRK 15 E OJC 25
NW EMP 10 SE SLN 20 NNE RSL 40 S MCK 30 WSW GLD 30 NNW TAD 65 S ALS
30 SSW ABQ 35 S DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 20 SSW NID 10 E BIH 10 WSW
LOL 65 SSE 4LW 50 E ACV 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 20 SSW DLS 45 SE EPH 40
NNW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 20 WSW BIS
35 WNW HON 45 E BKX 50 E BRD 30 ENE ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ID AND
MT....

UPPER PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMPLITUDE THIS MORNING THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL
POSE A RISK OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NY/NEW ENGLAND...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS
MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY.  THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPRESS STRONG HEATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. 
HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING.  INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. 
DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS STORMS
INTERACT WITH MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NEB/SD.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS.  STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS...ALONG WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.  MORE ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP EASTWARD AFTER DARK INTO CENTRAL KS/NEB...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

...MT/ID...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
AFFECT PARTS OF ID/MT BY THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.  PROGRESSION OF STORMS EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL MT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
AND LESS UPPER FORCING.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES
TODAY. MID LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS.  HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS NEAR STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/GUYER.. 08/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.