[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010519
SWODY1
SPC AC 010518

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N
OLF 15 ESE GDV 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15
WNW FCL 50 S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 55 NNE SHR 45 SSE BIL 35 NW
COD 35 ESE WEY 30 NNE IDA 35 ESE SUN 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 SSW S80
40 SSW S06 35 SW FCA 40 WNW CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
GFL MWN PWM 20 NW BOS BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 35 NNW SYR 20
W GFL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 30 N P07 60
SSW SJT 45 W TPL 10 WNW GGG 30 ENE PBF 55 W HTS 20 NNW PKB 35 SSW
CAK 45 W TOL 15 E BEH 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 40 SW IRK 15 E OJC 25
NW EMP 10 SE SLN 20 NNE RSL 40 S MCK 30 WSW GLD 30 NNW TAD 65 S ALS
30 SSW ABQ 35 S DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 20 SSW NID 10 E BIH 10 WSW
LOL 65 SSE 4LW 50 E ACV 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 20 SSW DLS 45 SE EPH 40
NNW 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 WSW BIS 35 WNW HON 45 E BKX 50 E BRD
30 ENE ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ID/MT AND A
SMALL PART OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE
NRN STATES THIS PERIOD AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE WCNTRL U.S.
CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD...
MOSTLY WEAK...DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST. GREATER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND FROM THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THESE AREAS.

...NORTHEAST...
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM SRN CANADA ACROSS NRN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACTING ON WEAK TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TSTM INTENSITY WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING. WHILE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SHOWERS COULD INHIBIT
GREATER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION...POCKETS OF
CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NY...SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40 KT WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORM UPDRAFTS PERHAPS DEVELOPING IN
BANDS OR LINE SEGMENTS. WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW HAIL REPORTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

...ID/MT...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
COAST ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IMPULSE IS FCST TO
LIFT ACROSS NWRN WA AND BC EARLY TODAY WITH 12-HOUR 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS OF 30-40M BRUSHING PARTS OF ID AND MT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NRN ID AND
WRN MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIFT ACTING ON NWRN EDGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME. WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EVOLVE
COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER FORCING AND RESULT IN WEAK TO MODEST
INSTABILITY FROM ID ACROSS WRN AND NRN MT. LARGE SCALE FORCING
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING TSTM
ACTIVITY.  STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...ERN MT/WY AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
PERSISTENT WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEATING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AIDED BY ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. WLY FLOW WILL AID IN
MOVING THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EAST INTO HOT AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS NEAR THE LEE-TROUGH. A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 08/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.