[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010058
SWODY1
SPC AC 010057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE
OSC 20 W HTL 20 SSW RHI 55 ENE STC 25 ESE BRD 45 NE BRD 15 NNW HIB
35 NW ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 25 NW VCT
CLL 35 SSW GGG DYR 30 SW BWG 25 SSE HTS 25 ESE HLG 20 WSW FKL 20 WSW
ERI ...CONT... 25 ESE DTW 30 WSW JXN 35 SE MKE RFD 30 ENE MLI 45 NNW
STL 10 S COU 30 N SZL 10 SSW FLV 30 SSE MHK 25 NW HUT 40 SW GLD 35
NNE LHX 45 ENE ALS 15 NW 4SL 25 NNE GNT 50 WNW ONM 20 WNW TCS 45 W
ELP ...CONT... 15 SE SAN 45 WSW DRA 70 ESE TVL 40 W SVE 30 WNW RBL
45 NE ACV 35 NNW MFR 25 NNW RDM 10 NNW PDT 10 WNW PUW 70 ENE 63S
...CONT... 60 NNW GGW 55 WSW GGW 90 E LWT 40 SSW MLS 10 NE REJ 45 NW
PHP 30 SSE PHP 25 E MHN 15 SW BBW 20 N EAR 25 NE GRI 15 NNW OLU 20
SSW BKX 35 ENE ATY 15 NW AXN 35 NNW BRD 45 WNW HIB 20 E INL
...CONT... 45 N BML 25 ESE EEN 20 NNE BDR 20 WNW ABE 40 SSW MRB 35
SW SHD 10 WSW ROA 30 NNW GSO 25 WNW RDU RWI 45 E RWI 40 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...

...NRN GREAT LAKES...
BROAD REGION OF WEAKLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS WITHIN THE
BASE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/SRN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FROM CNTRL MN NEWD TO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THE SURFACE TROUGH
INTERSECTS A LAKE BREEZE CONFLUENCE ZONE NEAR DLH AND THIS LAKE
BREEZE CONTINUES EWD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
ISOLATED TSTM CELLS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ON THE TROUGH OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AND ALSO NEAR THE TROUGH/LAKE BREEZE INTERSECTION AROUND
DLH. STRONGER STORMS WERE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CANADIAN
RADAR NORTH OF SAULT STE. MARIE IN ONTARIO.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE
TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND
VWP AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30KT...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND
SPREAD ESEWD INTO PARTS OF LWR MI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
OVER SRN ONTARIO MAY ALSO SPREAD ESEWD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
TONIGHT...PERHAPS MOVING INTO EXTREME WRN NY BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

...SRN CA/SWRN AZ...
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION HAS AGAIN FORMED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF AZ AND SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE STORMS HAS ENHANCED COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT AND STRONG WNWWD PROPAGATION WAS BEING AIDED BY ESELY
FLOW THROUGH THE LWR TROPOSPHERE. STRONG OUTFLOW WAS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE PHX AREA AND MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEE MCD NUMBER
1908 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

..CARBIN.. 08/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.