[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301610
SWODY1
SPC AC 301608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
DAB 50 N PIE ...CONT... 45 E 7R4 60 SW SEM 40 SE MCN 30 SSE CLT 10 N
LYH 15 SSW NHK 10 ESE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 50 SSE
FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 ESE HDO
15 N AUS 50 W LFK 30 NNW POE 20 NE HEZ 20 WNW BHM 40 NE TYS 35 SSE
LBE 20 SE BFD 35 SSW UCA 20 ENE PSF BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PDT 15 SW BOI
50 WNW BPI 45 SW LAR 20 SSE DEN 20 ENE LHX 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S
DHT 50 SSE RTN 45 ESE DRO 15 WNW U17 65 NE TPH 30 WSW MHS 25 E CEC
25 SSW SLE 35 NE PDX 30 ESE PDT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
THE EASTERN GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ERN U.S. WITH CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINING OVER NRN ONTARIO.  FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH IN STG WLYS
CURRENTLY ERN TX WILL GRADUALLY DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS GULF COAST STATES TO OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT.

ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

WHILE SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...THE DIMINISHING AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL TEMPER SOMEWHAT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...

REF MCD 724
SQUALL LINE HAS MOSTLY WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW SEVERE LEVELS WRN
CAROLINAS ATTM...BUT WITH HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION
WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS LINE CONTINUES EWD. WITH
40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1000
J/KG...ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
IS ALSO LIKELY.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF-SHORE AROUND 00Z
ENDING SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA.

...GULF COAST...
WRN EXTENSION OF SQUALL LINE HAS SLOWED AND EXTENDS WWD FROM WRN FL
PANHANDLE TO SERN LA.  WITH APPROACH OF THE S/W FROM
TX...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE
INTO SRN MS AND SRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG...THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED RESULTING IN JUST A
MARGINAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE SRN
GA INTO ERN FL PANHANDLE WHERE SHEAR REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE AND RICH
GULF AIR MASS IS SPREADING INLAND.

..HALES/GUYER.. 04/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.