[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301948
SWODY1
SPC AC 301946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 30
N TLH 35 SSW SAV 50 W CHS 20 NNW FAY 10 SSE DCA 30 SE DOV ...CONT...
10 NW DAB 55 N PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 30 SSE FMY
...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 SSW LUL 15 E ANB 40 NE TYS AOO 25 WSW IPT
30 ESE BGM 20 E PSF BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PDT 15 SW BOI
50 WNW BPI 45 SW LAR 20 SSE DEN 20 ENE LHX 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S
DHT 50 SSE RTN 45 ESE DRO 15 WNW U17 65 NE TPH 30 WSW MHS 25 E CEC
25 SSW SLE 35 NE PDX 30 ESE PDT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SWD
INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA...

...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...
WHILE ONE SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD INTO ERN NC...ANOTHER LINE WAS 
NEAR THE SC/GA COAST AT MID AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY
WINDS AND MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE
LINES TO PRODUCE A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO NEAR THE GA/SC COAST...
THE WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST IN ERN NC UNTIL AROUND 00Z.

...NRN FL PANHANDLE...
WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE IN SRN STREAM WAS LOCATED IN SERN TX
AT 19Z MOVING EWD AT 45 KT. WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...STRONGER
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM NEAR TLH SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
WELL SOUTH OF THE MS COAST. THE NRN GULF CONVECTION IS INGESTING
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ THAN IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE MAINLAND...AND IS RESULTING IN THE STORMS TO
PROPAGATE SEWD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NRN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE GULF.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL STATES...WORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS
THE NRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE STORMS DUE TO
THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

...AL/GA...
ETA MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCAPES INCREASING AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NWRN GA SWWD INTO SRN AL. HOWEVER
...MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO WARM AND STRONGER
CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NRN GULF.
ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SERN TX APPROACHES...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY NEW
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT.

..IMY.. 04/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.