[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301219
SWODY1
SPC AC 301218

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
ORL 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 25 SSE HUM 40 E LUL 30 ENE ANB 25 NE AVL
10 WNW LYH 25 SSW NHK 10 S WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E IDA 35 W LAR 45
WNW GLD 25 NE GCK 50 SSE DDC 20 S GAG 50 E AMA 50 N TCC 45 ESE DRO
20 SW 4BL 40 S ELY 10 S MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 SSW SLE 50 NW DLS 30 ESE
PDT 35 E IDA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 35 WSW BWD
35 NW ACT 35 NW LFK POE 35 W MCB 25 S CBM 30 SE LOZ 10 NW LBE 25 WNW
ELM 15 E UCA 15 SW LEB 15 S PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
AR/MS...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER WEST TX.  THESE FEATURES
WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
AL INTO NC AND SOUTHEAST VA.

...MS/AL/GA/FL TODAY...
LARGE SEVERE SQUALL LINE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHERN MS
INTO NORTH GA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR ORGANIZATION
MUCH OF THE DAY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS AL/GA/NORTH FL.  SEVERAL
BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES ARE NOTED IN LINE...SUGGESTING AN ENHANCED RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES IN LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE.

...SC/NC/SOUTHEAST VA THIS AFTERNOON...
NORTHERN END OF SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO EXTREME WESTERN
NC.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES INTO MORE WARMER AND MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER
CENTRAL CAROLINAS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RATHER WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION
WILL LIKELY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS MAY DEVELOP
INTO SOUTHEAST VA BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

...EAST/SOUTH TX...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TX. THIS FEATURE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DRT
AREA TO NORTH OF HOU.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST
NORTH OF LRD.  ALL OF THESE STORMS ARE NORTH OF A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT...AND ARE ELEVATED.  HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

..HART/BANACOS.. 04/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.