[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300532
SWODY1
SPC AC 300530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
HUM MEI 30 NW BHM 45 SW TYS BLF 25 SSE EKN 25 ESE AOO 30 N CXY 20 W
ABE TTN ACY ...CONT... 35 ENE ORL 20 NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E IDA 35 W LAR 45
WNW GLD 25 NE GCK 50 SSE DDC 20 S GAG 50 E AMA 50 N TCC 45 ESE DRO
20 SW 4BL 40 S ELY 10 S MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 SSW SLE 50 NW DLS 30 ESE
PDT 35 E IDA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 10 NNE JCT 30 NNW
CLL 30 N BPT 35 NNW BTR 20 SW CBM 25 NNE LOZ 35 WSW DUJ 25 WNW ELM
15 E UCA 15 SW LEB 15 S PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES...

LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO VERIFY 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
IN DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES...EJECTING EWD AND DEAMPIFYING SOMEWHAT AS IT TRAVERSES
THE GULF STATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF STATES AS VERY
MOIST PROFILES DEVELOP AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

CENTRAL/WRN GULF BUOYS HAVE MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SFC DEW
POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS AIRMASS WILL
RETURN INLAND OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.  ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN LA INTO NWRN GA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AND
SLOWLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AS INFLUENCE OF
UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THIS REGION.  AS A RESULT...AN EXPANDING
MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AND PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ERN GULF STATES DUE TO REASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW.  DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STORM MODE...HOWEVER INCREASING DEW POINTS AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IF UPDRAFTS CAN INITIATE
INDEPENDENT OF AFOREMENTIONED CLUSTER. ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF SUPERCELLS CAN INDEED INITIATE.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO MODIFY ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING.  NAM
MODEL INSISTS LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO SERN PA BY
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE MOIST BIAS OF THIS MODEL AND ITS PAST
PERFORMANCE THE LAST FEW RUNS...IT APPEARS DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE
TO HIT 60 DEG...EXCEPT ALONG A NARROW AXIS INLAND ACROSS CNTRL VA
INTO NC.  EARLY IN THE PERIOD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AS WEAK SFC LOW LIFTS
NEWD INTO PA.  IF PARTIAL CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...SHEAR
PROFILES WARRANT PROBABILITIES SUPPORTIVE OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS IF BOUNDARY LAYER STORMS DO INDEED
MATERIALIZE.

..DARROW/BANACOS.. 04/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.