[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300101
SWODY1
SPC AC 300059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
BPT 20 SSE LFK 15 SE GGG 35 SE TXK PBF 30 SSW DYR 10 SW HOP 55 E BWG
40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG 25 ESE GSO
35 SE AND 10 NE AQQ ...CONT... 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 35 ESE SAT 30 W
AUS 35 SW TYR 20 NNW TXK 55 NNW LIT 15 NNW CGI 30 NW EVV 55 W LUK 15
N UNI 10 S MGW 30 NW DCA 15 ENE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 10 S RBL 25 WSW
MHS 40 NNW MFR 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BKE 15 WNW BOI 15 NNE OWY 30 NW EKO
70 WNW WMC SVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SAD 30 SSE FLG
50 SSE PGA 35 W FMN 35 SSE MTJ 40 E GUC 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 10 NE
ROW 45 NNW ELP 40 NNW SAD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO ERN TN...

...GULF COAST AND TN VALLEY...

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE GULF COAST REGION INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
INHIBITION REMAINS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ROUGHLY NEAR 800MB FROM
LA INTO AL.  THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR SUPPRESSING
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN
ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS SERN TX.  AS A RESULT...FRONTAL
FORCING APPEARS NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.  CURRENT BAND OF ONGOING
CONVECTION FROM SERN AR INTO NWRN MS MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATER THIS EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING
FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLOWLY MOISTENING LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. 
HOWEVER...STORM MODE EVOLUTION MAY ULTIMATELY SUPPORT A HIGHER
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA INTO
WRN MS.  LATEST THINKING IS A SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 04-06Z BEFORE SPREADING INTO ERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK LATE IN THE PERIOD.  NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS THE ERN TN VALLEY DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.

..DARROW.. 04/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.