[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 292006
SWODY1
SPC AC 292005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TXK 15
SSW HOT 40 SW JBR 15 NNE MKL 30 SSE BNA 15 NW GAD 35 NNE MEI 30 NNE
HEZ 35 SSW SHV 25 NNW SHV TXK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
BPT LFK GGG 30 WNW TXK HRO UNO CGI OWB 50 ENE BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS
RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT
35 ESE SAT 30 W AUS 50 SSE DAL 25 NW PRX 25 SSE MKO 10 S JLN 35 N
SGF 20 ENE JEF 35 NNE ALN 15 S MIE 35 SSE MFD 20 NW AOO 30 WNW ILG
20 SSW ACY ...CONT... 25 W HSE 40 NNW FLO 20 SSE MCN 10 NE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 10 S RBL 25 WSW
MHS 40 NNW MFR 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BKE 15 WNW BOI 15 NNE OWY 30 NW EKO
70 WNW WMC SVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN
45 SSE U17 15 NW 4BL 30 SW GJT 35 N MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS
35 WSW ONM 60 ESE PRC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN...AND NORTHERN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE
RISK...FROM EAST TX ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS AND TN
VALLEYS...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
WV IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS AZ EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A LEAD SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING INTO WRN TX.  THIS LEAD TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
AR/LA BY 00Z...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SRN AR/NRN
LA...AND THEN EWD INTO MS/TN.  MID LEVEL WINDS OVER ERN TX PER WIND
PROFILER DATA AT LEADBETTER AND PALESTINE TX SHOWED BACKING AND
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS.  THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX
NEAR SAT TO DRT...WHILE A COMBINATION OF A WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EXTENDED ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR INTO NRN MS AND TN TO
KY.  SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NNEWD INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS OBSERVED IN SHV/JAN 18Z SOUNDINGS.  THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR
ARE WEAK AND STRONG FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN
TX/LOWER MS VALLEY UNTIL AROUND 00Z...SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE MAIN MECHANISM TO WEAKEN THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON.  MODIFIED
18Z SHV SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THIS IS
ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/ERN TX.  THUS...ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z OR SOONER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHERE CONVERGENCE IS THE STRONGEST...AND THEN SWD ALONG
THE COLD FRONT.  INSTABILITY/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE.  VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  18Z NAM SUGGESTED THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN AR/LA INTO MS.  AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH STORMS MOVING INTO
MIDDLE TN...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

...NRN AR INTO WRN KY/PORTIONS WRN TN...
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL AR
INTO KY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  DESPITE MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 04/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.