[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291540
SWODY1
SPC AC 291538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TXK 15
SSW HOT 40 SW JBR 15 NNE MKL 30 SSE BNA 15 NW GAD 25 W TCL 35 SE MLU
20 SSE SHV 25 N SHV TXK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
BPT LFK GGG 30 WNW TXK HRO UNO CGI OWB 50 ENE BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS
RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT
35 ESE SAT 30 W AUS 50 SSE DAL 25 NW PRX 25 SSE MKO 10 S JLN 35 N
SGF 20 ENE JEF 35 NNE ALN 15 S MIE 35 SSE MFD 20 NW AOO 30 WNW ILG
20 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W HSE 40 NNW FLO
20 SSE MCN 10 NE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 10 S RBL 25 WSW
MHS 40 NNW MFR 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BKE 15 WNW BOI 15 NNE OWY 30 NW EKO
70 WNW WMC SVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN
45 SSE U17 15 NW 4BL 30 SW GJT 35 N MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS
35 WSW ONM 60 ESE PRC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS MUCH OF
LOWER/MIDDLE MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVING IN FAST WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN STATES
AS LARGE POLAR LOW REMAINS OVER S CENTRAL CANADA. ONE IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AR WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH
 ENTERING SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WELL BE PRIMARY FEATURE
SUPPORTING DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TN
VALLEY.

FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM KY WSWWD ACROSS NRN AR THEN INTO N TX
WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW NCENTRAL TX.  WARM SECTOR WILL RAPIDLY WARM
AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN STATES TODAY AS GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES SPREADING INLAND.

SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGINS
DEEPENING TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WIND MAX.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
CURRENT ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NRN AR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EWD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS INTO TN VALLEY. WITH STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AND CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMING
SURFACE BASED...SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAP FURTHER W WILL DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO SRN AR WHERE MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE TO
S OF E/W BOUNDARIES. WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LAPSE RATES
IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW VICINITY OF
BOUNDARIES...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
FROM SERN  AR ENEWD ACROSS MS INTO AL AND SRN TN.

ADDITIONALLY SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND
OVERNIGHT AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT  AS CONVECTION EVOLVES
MORE INTO BOWS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER FLOW.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EWD
ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MAINTAINING A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH THE INFLUX OF  UNSTABLE GULF AIR. 
WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE ONCE STORMS EVOLVE INTO MORE
OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT...STRONG SHEAR AND AVAILABILITY OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..HALES/GUYER.. 04/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.