[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291238
SWODY1
SPC AC 291237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIT 55
SW JBR 30 SW DYR 15 NNE MKL 35 S BNA HSV CBM 50 NNE HEZ 20 SSE SHV
25 N SHV LIT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
BPT LFK GGG 30 WNW TXK HRO UNO CGI OWB 50 ENE BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS
RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT
40 SSE AUS 40 ENE AUS 40 ESE ACT 35 WSW TYR 45 SSE DUA 25 NNW OKC 25
ESE P28 10 ENE HUT 10 WNW OJC SPI 15 ENE MIE 25 SE MFD 20 NW AOO 30
WNW ILG 20 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E EWN 30 SSW FLO
60 W SAV 35 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN
40 SW 4HV 35 NNE MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS 35 N TCS 60 ESE
PRC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE SAC 10 S RBL
35 WSW MHS 30 S EUG 50 NNE RDM 45 ESE BKE 20 SSE BOI 40 SSE OWY 25
SSE BAM 35 SE TVL 40 ESE SAC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN...AND NORTHWEST AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MS AND TN VALLEYS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...LIKELY
PRODUCING A LOCALIZED OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF AR/LA/TN/MS/AL.

...AR/TN/MS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AR.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO TX/OK...AND ON THE NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.  ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS.  SOUTHERN END OF ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
SURFACE-BASED BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN AR...SOUTHERN TN...AND
NORTHERN MS WITH A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

...AR/LA/TN/MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S AND POCKETS
OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING.  MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP. 
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF PRIMARY UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD WEAKEN CAP OVER THIS
REGION.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 21Z
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
AR/NORTHERN LA AND INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS BY EARLY EVENING. 
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  VERY
LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT.  OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY PERSIST FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
AR...WEST TN...AND NORTHERN MS.  ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
IN VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAY POSE A THREAT OF TORNADOES
/POTENTIALLY STRONG/ WITH ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT. 
CONVECTION MAY ALSO ORGANIZE IN AN MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TN/NORTHWEST AL WITH A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 04/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.