[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290553
SWODY1
SPC AC 290552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
LIT 55 SW JBR 30 SW DYR 10 NNE MKL 50 NNE MSL 25 SSE MSL 45 SW CBM
55 NNE HEZ 25 W MLU 20 NW ELD 20 SW LIT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
BPT 50 S LFK 15 SSW GGG 35 WSW TXK 20 NNW PGO 25 ESE TUL 25 WSW JLN
20 N SGF 45 NE UNO 25 N PAH 30 SW LUK 45 WNW HTS 20 E JKL 40 ENE CHA
25 SE ANB 30 SSW MGM 35 SE MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT
40 SSE AUS 40 ENE AUS 40 ESE ACT 35 WSW TYR 45 SSE DUA 25 NNW OKC 25
ESE P28 10 ENE HUT 10 WNW OJC SPI 15 ENE MIE 25 SE MFD 20 NW AOO 30
WNW ILG 20 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE EWN 30 WNW OAJ
30 S SOP 40 ENE CAE 30 ESE AGS 35 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN
40 SW 4HV 35 NNE MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS 35 N TCS 60 ESE
PRC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SVE 10 S RBL
40 E EKA 30 S EUG 20 NW RDM 45 ESE BKE 20 SSE BOI 40 SSE OWY 25 SSE
BAM 25 NNW NFL 30 SSE SVE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN LA...CNTRL/SERN AR
INTO WRN TN AND NWRN/NRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
SERN TX TO NWRN GA INTO KY...

...MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...

DEAMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS RECOVERING WARM SECTOR HIGHLIGHTING THE
PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES AND PORTIONS OF
THE TN VALLEY.

LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE FINALLY
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TO RETURN NWD INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX...SRN LA WHERE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATES MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOTED AT 05Z. 
STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO AR WILL ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO
THE MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY MID
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT THINKING IS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NERN OK/NRN AR WILL AID
INITIAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 
THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL AT TIMES AS IT SPREADS EWD DURING THE
DAY UTILIZING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REINFORCING E-W
BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS AR INTO WRN KY.  FARTHER SOUTH...WARM
SECTOR INITIATION SHOULD BE DELAYED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS AR
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
THE NEED FOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN AR IN PARTICULAR APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...VEERING
PROFILES AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG.  GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF STRONG FORCING IT APPEARS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
DISCRETE AND THUS THE PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS DOWNSTREAM...POSSIBLY
EVOLVING INTO MORE LINEAR OR BOW SHAPED STRUCTURES.

LASTLY...EVENING MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SFC FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING STORMS...HOWEVER STRONG FOCUS
ALONG BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS MS/AL INTO WRN GA BY MORNING. NRN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY.

..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 04/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.