[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281619
SWODY1
SPC AC 281618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
TUL 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 15 E PAH 55 SW CKV 40 W MSL 30 NNW GLH 15 S
PRX 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MRY 25 NNE SFO
35 SE RBL 25 NE MHS 65 ESE BNO 35 N SUN 45 SW JAC 20 ESE RKS 15 E
SNY 35 E MCK 40 S BIE 25 NNE MKC 20 E CMH 25 NW EKN LYH 10 NE GSO 20
SW HKY 15 NE RMG 35 SSE BHM 50 NE JAN 65 E ACT 25 SSE SEP 35 SSW ADM
50 NE OKC 35 E GAG 40 SSE EHA 15 SSE RTN 20 WSW LVS 25 WNW GNT 35
ESE PRC 40 SSW EED 30 W DAG 25 W PMD OXR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE NEL 20 ENE PSB
15 W BFD 30 NW BUF ...CONT... 40 WSW MSS 15 SE SLK 15 SSE RUT 15 NE
PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION....

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN CIRCULATION OF UPPER LOW CENTERED
IN MANITOBA...WILL ROTATE SEWD INTO THE PLAIN STATES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN THE EJECTION AND WEAKENING OF AN UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SRN CA...AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO NM TONIGHT.

...ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
MCS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS DECREASE AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE
STABLE MID LEVEL AIR MASS.

SURFACE LOW...LOCATED NEAR OKC AT MID MORNING...IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EWD INTO NWRN AR BY 00Z. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM SURFACE LOW
INTO CENTRAL AR AND WILL SHIFT NWD TO NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER BY LATE
IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MORNING SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NEAR A ACT-LFK
SHOULD ADVECT NEWD AT LEAST INTO WRN AR THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 00Z.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...MUCAPES VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AT 50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST HAIL AND SOME
WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED DURING THE EVENING AS
COOLING BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS CAP AROUND 850 MB. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AS
THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS NERN AR/SRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO WRN TN/KY.

AFTER 06Z...UPSTREAM SPEED MAX/EXIT REGION AHEAD OF WEAKENING CA
TROUGH WILL APPROACH OK. THIS WILL SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL JET TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TO 35-40 KT
ACROSS ERN OK. STRENGTHENING UVV FROM THE LOWER/UPPER JETS ABOVE THE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK IN ERN OK...WITH A SEVERE HAIL THREAT.

..IMY/JEWELL.. 04/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.