[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281227
SWODY1
SPC AC 281226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
TUL 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 25 NNW PAH 35 W HOP 25 NNE MEM 15 SW TXK 15
S PRX 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S EKA 25 NNE 4BK
30 ESE AST 15 SE OLM YKM 15 NW PDT BKE 10 NE BOI 35 NE SUN 35 SW JAC
35 NW RWL 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW MCK CNK 40 SW UIN 10 ENE IND 10 E CMH
MGW DCA 10 SSE RIC 15 ENE RDU 45 ESE GWO 65 E ACT 35 SSE SEP 15 NNE
LTS 35 NNW AMA 15 E LVS ONM 80 NE SAD PHX 10 W DAG 35 S BFL 15 SSE
VBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID
SOUTH/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...

...ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...
MORNING MCS DEVELOPING ALONG NOSE OF STRONG SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE
EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS LLJ AXIS VEERS. 
ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS ALONG
WRN EDGE OF THIS MCS INTO THE MID MORNING.  HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THE MORNING STORMS AS ACTIVITY OUTRUNS
FEED OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  

BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MODIFY ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
NWD RETURN ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH TX.  COMBINATION
OF MORNING RAIN AND ADVECTION WITHIN SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW AN AXIS OF UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS AR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL
ZONE...AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG BOUNDARY.  DESPITE VEERED FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND
MARGINAL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
00Z...THEN SPREAD NEWD WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

AFTER 00Z...UPSTREAM SPEED MAX/EXIT REGION WILL APPROACH ERN
OK.  THIS WILL SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG NOSE OF
35-45 KT SLY LLJ.  PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP 10C
H85 DEW POINTS SUGGEST MODERATE MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP...AND SHOULD
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 04/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.