[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 282000
SWODY1
SPC AC 281958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
TUL 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 15 E PAH 55 SW CKV 40 W MSL 30 NNW GLH 15 S
PRX 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MRY 25 NNE SFO
35 SE RBL 25 NE MHS 65 ESE BNO 35 N SUN 45 SW JAC 20 ESE RKS 15 E
SNY 35 E MCK 40 S BIE 25 NNE MKC 20 E CMH 25 NW EKN LYH 10 NE GSO 20
SW HKY 15 NE RMG 35 SSE BHM 50 NE JAN 65 E ACT 25 SSE SEP 35 SSW ADM
50 NE OKC 35 E GAG 40 SSE EHA 15 SSE RTN 20 WSW LVS 25 WNW GNT 35
ESE PRC 40 SSW EED 30 W DAG 25 W PMD OXR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE NEL 20 ENE PSB
15 W BFD 30 NW BUF ...CONT... 35 NW PBG 15 SE SLK 15 SSE RUT 15 NE
PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK/ARKLATEX TO THE
MID MS VALLEY...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/ERN OK WILL MOVE
EWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW
CENTERED OVER SRN NV APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVING EWD AT 80-90 KT. 
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 60-65 KT
FROM THE SFC-6 KM ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE TX PANHANDLE SPEED MAX.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO FAR NERN OK...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL OK TO WEST CENTRAL TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED NEWD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SRN MO...WHILE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED GENERALLY E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AR TO AROUND FSM AND THEN NWWD
TO THE LOW.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 IN SERN
OK EXPECTED TO REACH WRN AR BY 00Z.  CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING OVER
ERN OK/WRN AR WITHIN MOISTENING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING APPEAR TO BE LIMITING
A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU/TCU. HOWEVER...THIS SUPPRESSION SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH THUNDERSTORM INITIATION EXPECTED NEAR THE OK/AR
BORDER INTO NWRN AR BETWEEN 21-00Z AS THE ASCENT/COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE TX PANHANDLE SPEED MAX
SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION.  

IF STORMS DEVELOP PRIOR TO 00Z...THEN SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREATS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/CONGEAL INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO AND SPREAD EWD INTO WRN KY/TN.  THIS
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SPEED MAX MOVES TOWARD THE
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...AND WAA ALONG A STRONG LLJ EXTENDING FROM
ERN TX TO THE TN VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN OK INTO WRN AR/SRN MO LATE TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE SRN NV TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION.  A SWLY LLJ IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FROM CENTRAL TX INTO ERN OK.  DEEP
LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL JETS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL.

..PETERS.. 04/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.