[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280540
SWODY1
SPC AC 280539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
BVO 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 25 NNW PAH 35 W HOP 25 NNE MEM 40 NNE TYR 35
E DAL 10 W DUA 25 NW MLC 20 SSE BVO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S EKA 25 NNE 4BK
30 ESE AST 15 SE OLM YKM 15 NW PDT BKE 10 NE BOI 35 NE SUN 35 SW JAC
35 NW RWL 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW MCK CNK 40 SW UIN 10 ENE IND 10 E CMH
MGW DCA 10 SSE RIC 15 ENE RDU GWO 65 E ACT 35 SSE SEP 15 NNE LTS 35
NNW AMA 15 E LVS ONM 80 NE SAD PHX 10 W DAG BFL 35 W PRB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WRN KY...

...ARKLATEX TO WRN KY...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRI-MODEL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY.  IT APPEARS
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN KS INTO NERN OK WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
IN AREAL COVERAGE BY 12Z AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT SHOULD TRACK
EWD ACROSS SRN MO/AR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
AIDED BY VEERING LLJ THAT SHOULD FORCE LEADING EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  IN THE WAKE OF
THIS CONVECTION...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM NERN TX INTO CNTRL
AR...WHILE LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN OK IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SPEED MAX.

BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MODIFY ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PURE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR CONFINED TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...SWD. LATEST TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN GULF SUGGEST
LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
INTO CENTRAL AR BY PEAK HEATING.  WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED ALONG
SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY.  DESPITE VEERED FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER...AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY 00Z...THEN SPREAD NEWD WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

WELL AFTER 00Z...UPSTREAM SPEED MAX/EXIT REGION WILL APPROACH ERN
OK.  THIS WILL SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.  ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AHEAD OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE.

..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 04/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.