[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261614
SWODY1
SPC AC 261613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
BPT 20 W HEZ 20 SE GWO BHM 25 S ATL 55 NW AYS SSI ...CONT... 25 SSE
VRB 10 W FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LRD 20 S CRP
...CONT... 15 SSW BPT 35 SW GLH 55 NNE GLH 25 WSW MEM 50 SSW JBR 60
SE HRO 20 SW FYV 10 NW TUL 20 WNW BVO 40 S EMP 15 S OTM 10 S DBQ 15
WSW JVL 35 ESE JVL AZO 25 SW CAK 15 WSW PIT 30 ENE LBE 30 NE IPT 15
NE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 15 W FCA 15
WNW LVM 35 ESE EVW 15 NE PUC 40 NW U17 35 SW BCE 70 NNW BIH 50 ESE
RBL EKA ...CONT... 40 S ONP 20 S SEA 35 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE DHT 15 SE CSM
40 N ADM 20 NNW DUA 45 NNW DAL 70 WNW ABI 35 S LBB 35 SSE CVS 30 NE
4CR 35 NE ONM 35 WSW TCS 35 SSE SOW 60 NW GUP 10 NW DRO 30 WNW TAD
50 ENE DHT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST STATES...

...ERN GULF COAST STATES...

LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLD UPPER LOW OVER WRN
ONTARIO SWD THRU WRN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY.  VERY STRONG
WIND FIELDS ROTATING THRU BOTTOM OF TROUGH ATTM TRANSLATING ACROSS
LWR MS VALLEY/MIDDLE GULF COAST TO SERN U.S. TONIGHT.

AIR MASS RECOVERY PROCESS ONGOING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SPREADING INLAND ACROSS NERN GULF COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAY. 
WITH THE STRONG WLY COMPONENT AND THE UPPER SUPPORT ROTATING RATHER
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SERN STATES...ONLY EXPECT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP INLAND PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF UPPER
TROUGH.

ONGOING MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NCENTRAL AL WSWWD
ACROSS SRN MS REFLECTS THE VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV
TROUGH NOW ROTATING ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY.  MORE VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER NRN GULF WHERE RICHER GULF AIR
MASS IS AVAILABLE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR.

SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MDT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DURING AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AL/GA AND FL PANHANDLE. 
WITH SUCH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...60-70KT FROM SFC-6KM...
EVEN A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE CURRENT
LINE OF CONVECTION.  WHILE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY
COOL AND STEEP...THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE LIMITED BY
LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DOMINANT WLY COMPONENT LIMITING THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
BE NEARER THE NERN GULF COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE MID/UPR 60S FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. 
CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW HEATING PROCESS AHEAD OF STORMS...HOWEVER
MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD BE AVAILABLE FOR SUPERCELL 
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NRN FL INTO SRN GA/SERN AL. SINCE THE
SHEAR AND HELICITY IS VERY FAVORABLE...SUPERCELLS COULD EASILY FORM
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN SUFFICIENT CAPE.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASING THREAT OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT AS THE LINES
OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND SE ACROSS SC AND FL WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH ROTATING AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY NERN GULF
REGION.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 04/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.