[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261214
SWODY1
SPC AC 261212

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
VRB 10 W FMY ...CONT... 40 SE BPT 35 NNE ESF 20 SE GWO 15 N BHM 25 S
ATL 55 NW AYS SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 4OM 35 NNE 27U
35 W BPI 40 NNW VEL 15 NE PUC 40 NW U17 15 ESE P38 70 NNW BIH 50 ESE
RBL EKA ...CONT... ONP 35 ESE OLM 35 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MFE 15 ENE CRP
...CONT... 20 ENE PSX 40 NNE LFK PRX 65 WNW ABI 60 SSE CVS 40 ENE
CVS 55 E AMA 35 WNW OKC 15 NE TUL 25 W TBN 40 NNW ALN 45 N DNV 35
ESE FWA 25 NW ZZV 10 SE HLG 25 SE LBE 30 NE IPT 15 NE ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WILL PRECEED
SURFACE COLD FRONT TODAY...WHICH WAS MOVING SEWD OUT OF ERN AR/ERN
TX AT 12Z.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE COASTAL FRONT NOW
MOVING WELL INLAND SWRN LA AND EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SERN LA AND JUST
OFF THE MS/AL COAST.  MODELS BRING MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY NWD QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH 64+F DEW
POINTS LIKELY ACROSS SERN LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 15Z. 
GFS AND NAM CONSISTENT IN INCREASING/DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN MS/ERN LA BY 15Z...WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AS STORMS MOVE QUICKLY EWD WITHIN A DESTABILIZING
AIR MASS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  IN FACT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL LA AT 12Z WHICH IS LIKELY
BEGINNING OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION
TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS MODERATE
INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ERN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE.  NWD EXTENSION OF STRONG/SEVERE STORM
THREAT WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE INTO THE TN AND OH RIVER VALLEYS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY REMAIN LIMITED. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND WARRANT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES NWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY.

SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH
SMALL LINES.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ROTATING STORMS WILL FAVOR
PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE/. 
TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A DISTINCT THREAT TODAY GIVEN STRENGTH OF
LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...DESPITE THE SWLY SURFACE WIND DIRECTION. 
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED
BY THE MID/LATE MORNING.  

...FL INTO SRN GA...
AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWER TO RECOVER NEWD INTO GA AND NRN FL TODAY AS
MORNING CONVECTION REINFORCES COASTAL FRONT NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE. 
APPEARS STRONGER...MORE CELLULAR STORMS JUST OFF THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE COAST WILL SPREAD EWD AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS
COASTAL FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY INLAND.  THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD A
SEVERE THREAT INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  SHOULD STORMS
BECOME SURFACE BASED...SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN FL...WITH LINE SAGGING SWD INTO CENTRAL
FL THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH SEVERE THREAT MAY WANE
AFTER DARK...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WITH SMALL LINES/LEWPS INTO CENTRAL FL GIVEN VERY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.