[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251955
SWODY1
SPC AC 251953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
BWD 35 SSE SPS 10 WNW ADM 35 N PRX 30 NNW GGG 45 WNW LFK 30 ESE TPL
25 WSW TPL 35 ESE BWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
CRP 30 W VCT 45 NNW SAT 55 WNW MWL 45 W OKC 15 NW PNC 35 SW JLN 45
WNW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 30 SSE SEM 35 SSW TOI 25 WNW
PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 25 SSE JCT
45 E SJT 65 NNW ABI 30 E CNM 25 SW DMN 20 NE TUS 55 SSW PRC 55 SE
TPH 45 N SVE 30 N LMT 40 SSE RDM 35 N BNO 40 ENE OWY 15 SSW SLC 35
NE VEL 60 SW LAR 15 ESE DEN 30 NW LHX 40 SW DHT 10 WSW AMA 65 SW GAG
15 SE ICT 20 S MHK 10 SSW CNK 35 W LNK 15 SSW LSE 20 NE LNR 25 WNW
RFD 20 N BMI 10 ESE MTO 35 SSE BMG 30 N BNA 20 WNW RMG 10 SW LGC 10
SSE PFN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS N CENTRAL TX AND A SMALL
PART OF S CENTRAL OK THROUGH THIS EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
WITH TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OK SWD THROUGH N
CENTRAL TX AND SWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FOLLOWING ANOTHER
VORTICITY MAX THAT IS MOVING ACROSS SERN OK.  500 MB TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TX PANHANDLE SYSTEM ARE AROUND -20C...AND
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC AND WRF MODELS IS COMBINING WITH SURFACE
HEATING TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  SECONDARY COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM SWRN WI SWWD INTO N CENTRAL KS SWD INTO THE NRN
TX PANHANDLE.  THIS WILL CONTINUE EWD/SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT ENHANCING
LIFT OVER OK/TX/AR/LA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

HAVE UPGRADED PARTS OF N CENTRAL TX TO MODERATE RISK AS
SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE INCREASING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AIR MASS OVER N CENTRAL TX
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SFC BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG.  IN ADDITION...BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 80 AND 100 M2/S2
INDICATING FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR /55 KT 0-6KM SHEAR/ TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. THUS...AS SFC LOW MOVES EWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE OK/TX
RED RIVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 682 AND 683
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

..MCCARTHY.. 04/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.