[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260101
SWODY1
SPC AC 260100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
BPT 40 SSW LFK 25 NNW ACT 25 NNE FTW 35 N ADM 15 SW TUL 45 SSW JLN
45 WNW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 30 SSE SEM 35 SSW TOI 25
WNW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S VCT 55 SSE AUS
20 W TPL 25 WSW SEP 20 SW ABI 20 W MAF 25 SW DMN 55 NE PHX 30 SSE
LAS 50 SE TPH 15 WNW EKO 40 E OWY TWF 15 WNW MLD 40 NNE VEL 25 ESE
GUC 30 WNW RTN 40 SW DHT AMA 65 SW GAG 15 ESE ICT 30 NNW BRL 25 SE
MLI 20 NNW BMI 10 ESE MTO 20 ENE EVV 30 N BNA 20 WNW RMG 10 SW LGC
10 SSE PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/ERN TX EWD TO THE
CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

...SRN PLAINS TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 998MB LOW VCNTY KADM WITH A DRYLINE SWD
THROUGH KDFW THEN SWWD TO JUST SE OF KDRT.  A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
1000-1700 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM ECNTRL OK
INTO DEEP S TX.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEGUN
TO ACCELERATE SEWD THROUGH SRN OK/NRN TX WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ATOP THE MOIST AXIS.

EARLIER TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE VCNTY KSEP-KFTW HAVE
MOVED ESEWD TOWARD THE PINEY WOODS OF ERN TX AND HAVE WEAKENED SINCE
LATE AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS ARE LIKELY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS
THEY MOVE ATOP A COOLER AIR MASS SITUATED ACROSS ECNTRL TX.

ELSEWHERE...THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE OVER
SCNTRL OK VCNTY I-35 CORRIDOR NEWD TO NEAR KTUL AND TSTMS HAVE
INTENSIFIED ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

FARTHER S...STRONGER CAP...WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SURFACE
DIVERGENCE HAVE LIMITED CU DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM
INITIATION DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL TX.

OVERNIGHT...H925-H85 LLJ WILL VEER AND BLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM WRN AR INTO NRN LA.  RESULTANT
INCREASE IN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AN EXTENSION TO THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY...FROM ERN OK/AR INTO ERN TX AND NRN/CNTRL LA.  ASIDE FROM
A NARROW CORRIDOR OVER ERN OK AND ERN TX...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY
BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
EMANATE FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE/STEEP LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT FARTHER
WEST AND ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN STRONG
EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR.

LATER TONIGHT...21Z NAMKF/RUC/SREF ALL SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER LLJ
SEGMENT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. 
THIS JET WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR APPROACHING DEEP S TX AND SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA 09-12Z.  THOUGH EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT ON INCREASING THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
BY MORNING.  THIS GIVES RISE TO SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION MAY
INTENSIFY ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE CURRENT PCPN SHIELD MOVING
ACROSS SRN LA TO SRN AL AFTER 06-09Z.  IF UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLD TORNADOES MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..RACY.. 04/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.