[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251607
SWODY1
SPC AC 251605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT MON APR 25 2005

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
CRP 30 W VCT 15 SSE AUS 35 NW ACT 25 WNW OKC 25 WSW BVO 40 SSW JLN
45 WNW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 30 SSE SEM 35 SSW TOI 25
WNW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 30 ESE JCT
20 NNW BWD 30 W ABI 40 NW GDP 25 SW DMN 20 NE TUS 55 SSW PRC 55 SE
TPH 45 N SVE 30 N LMT 40 SSE RDM 35 N BNO 40 ENE OWY 15 SSW SLC 35
NE VEL 60 SW LAR 15 ESE DEN 30 NW LHX 40 SW DHT 10 WSW AMA 65 SW GAG
15 SE ICT 20 S MHK 10 SSW CNK 35 W LNK 15 SSW LSE 20 NE LNR 25 WNW
RFD 15 ENE SPI 25 NNW SLO 25 ESE MVN 15 SW OWB 20 WNW RMG 10 SW LGC
10 SSE PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

SRN STREAM S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN TX BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LARGE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD
UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES.  THUS BY TONIGHT STRONG POLAR
JET WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TX TO SERN STATES. THIS WILL PUT IN
PLACE A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY.  COUPLED WITH
STRONG SHEAR THE RELATIVELY COLD LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD AN ELEVATED
MIX LAYER ACROSS SRN PLAINS TODAY ENHANCING INSTABILITY POTENTIAL.

BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND
PRIMARILY ON BOTH THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND A DEVELOPING DRY
LINE WHICH WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS OK/TX THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SRN PLAINS SUPPORTED BY ONGOING
MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EWD THIS AFTERNOON
AND ALLOW GOOD SURFACE HEATING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS WRN OK INTO
CENTRAL TX.  SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SE AND THEN EWD ALONG RED RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY LINE SETS UP FROM CENTRAL OK SSWWD
ACROSS NCENTRAL TX TO NEAR DRT. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG ERN OK UPWARDS TO 2000
J/KG NRN TX AHEAD OF DRY LINE WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR
60F.

SURFACE INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE WITH THE 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE DOMINANT THREAT
 ...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE
SHEAR...PARTICULARLY N TX WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER.  PARTS OF
THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN AFTERNOON OUTLOOK IF MOISTURE
RETURN AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT.

STORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP S/SEWD THRU ERN TX INTO THE EVENING AS
CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. ADDITIONALLY STORMS OVER SRN OK/NRN TX ARE
LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A MCS/SQUALL LINE AND CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT
ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY.  AGAIN AMOUNT OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AS SHEAR
WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE
AREA OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY SRN MS/LA.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 04/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.