[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251234
SWODY1
SPC AC 251232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT MON APR 25 2005

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
CRP 30 W VCT 15 SSE AUS 35 NW ACT 35 WSW ADM 40 SE OKC 25 SSW MKO 30
WSW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 25 SSW AUO 40 NNE DHN 20 NW
PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 30 NE JCT 10
WNW BWD 40 ENE BGS 10 ENE CNM 30 WNW SVC 50 NE IGM 45 WSW P38 70 WNW
OWY 45 N BNO 10 ENE ALW 20 NNE S80 30 ENE BPI 35 E DEN 50 NNE CAO 55
S LBL 30 N GAG 30 S BIE 35 SSE FOD 50 ENE ALO 25 SSE LNR 20 SW RFD
25 NW STL 20 NE MDH 10 SW BWG 30 WSW CHA 35 ESE LGC 30 ENE AQQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS ACROSS LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SRN PLAINS ACROSS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW OVER SERN CO/NERN NM WILL
EJECT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT AS IT PHASES
WITH LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SEWD AND EXTEND FROM ERN IA SWWD
INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD
ROUGHLY ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR BY 00Z.  STRONG /110-120 KT/ WSWLY H25
JET AXIS WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS ERN TX TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...AS A BROAD SWATH OF 50+ KT H5 WINDS
OVERSPREADS STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS.  RESULTANT
SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. 


  /SRN PLAINS/
NWD MOISTURE RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT SLOWED BY
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TX WITHIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
WAA REGIME.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND GENERALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO ERN TX TODAY.  AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ANY NEAR-SURFACE BASED
STORM WILL HAVE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL. 
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER STORMS.

06Z ETA STILL APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN ITS SFC MOISTURE RETURN...
DUE TO FORECAST OF 70+F DEW POINTS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING WHERE BOUYS ARE ONLY MEASURING LOWER/MID 60F DEW POINTS. 
AXIS OF 52-56F DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS NCENTRAL TX
BY 21Z...WITH 64+F DEW POINTS INTO CENTRAL TX...WHICH IS MORE IN
LINE WITH 09Z RUC.  DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-17C TO -19C AT
H5/ WILL SUPPORT NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF DRY
LINE INTO CENTRAL TX AND POSSIBLY S-CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AXIS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
 PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
QUITE LARGE...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SHEAR.  SHOULD GREATER MOISTURE RETURN OCCUR...TORNADO
THREAT WOULD INCREASE GIVEN SIZE/SHAPE OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND
EXPECTED DISCRETE NATURE OF THE STORMS.  

NWD EXTENSION OF SEVERE THREAT ALONG COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL/ERN OK
WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER SURFACE DEW POINTS.  HOWEVER...STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
A LOW PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT INTO THE EVENING.  HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
ISOLATED STORMS NEAR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO ERN TX
PANHANDLE/SWRN OK LATER TODAY.

  /LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/
PROXIMITY OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...60+F SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WELL EAST OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD AND MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.  STORMS WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATED ...BUT COULD BECOME
SURFACE-BASED AND INCREASE A TORNADO THREAT NEAR THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.