[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240541
SWODY1
SPC AC 240539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ENE 63S MSO 25 SSE
DEN 45 S LHX EHA 25 N END PGO 10 N GLS ...CONT... 15 S FHU 40 E PHX
45 NNE NID 15 SE TVL 50 SE EUG 10 ESE BLI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE SRN CA WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING.  LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE LEE-TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND BE THE FOCUS
FOR TSTMS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO W TX...
MID-HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WARM
CONVEYOR E OF THE SWRN STATES UPPER LOW...WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE E OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING LIKELY
OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR VCNTY THE LEE-TROUGH.

H5 TEMPERATURES DECREASING AOA MINUS 20C AND RECYCLED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT THERMAL BUOYANCY FOR HIGH-BASED
TSTMS WITH ISOLD GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY
MID-AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...THOUGH MEAGER BUOYANCY MAY MITIGATE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. A
COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD SEVERE HAIL.  THE SEVERE
THREATS WILL NOT WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK...BUT RATHER A LOW
PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL.

STORMS MAY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY SUNDAY
EVENING...THOUGH CINH MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED STORMS FROM
FORMING/SURVIVING.  BUT...GIVEN A STORM OUT ON THE PLAINS...LARGE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY AID IN GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.

AS THE LLJ DIURNALLY DEVELOPS AFTER DARK...INCREASE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION MAY LOFT PARCELS TO HIGH LFC/S ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE IN WCNTRL/CNTRL TX SUNDAY NIGHT.  THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED MEAGER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HOWEVER.

..RACY/CROSBIE.. 04/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.