[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241234
SWODY1
SPC AC 241232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 ENE PHX
35 W LAS 15 NNW TVL 25 W MFR 10 ESE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE 63S 20 ESE
PUW 15 WSW 27U 50 WNW RIW 45 NNW CYS 55 SW GLD 45 SSE DDC 40 WSW TUL
20 SSW PGO 10 N GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE EFK 15 E CON 25
SSW ORH 15 NE POU 25 SW ART.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NM INTO FAR WRN AND SWRN TX...
BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS AZ.  ETA...ETAKF...AND 09Z
IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS.  THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN
RATHER MEAGER...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-18C TO -21C AT H5/ AND DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AFTER 18Z. AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS GREATEST QUESTION ATTM.  BOTH RUC AND ETAKF
DEVELOP 500-700 J/KG SBCAPE FROM CENTRAL NM INTO SWRN TX BY 21Z...
WHICH WOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM AND FAR WRN TX. 
HOWEVER...ETA AND GFS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.  REGARDLESS...SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AS STRENGTHENING SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE OVERSPREAD BY 45-55 KT WLY H5 WINDS TODAY.  THUS...ANY
STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OFF HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  WILL
OPT TO MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAY REQUIRE A SLGT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS TODAY.

LATER TONIGHT...SLY LLJ WILL INCREASE AND MAY ALLOW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL TX/SRN OK LATER
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...ELEVATED CAPE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR
SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.