[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240038
SWODY1
SPC AC 240036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 10 NW MLB
...CONT... 25 SSW EWN 30 WSW WAL 20 SW AVP ROC ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK
30 ENE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CZZ 25 W PMD
NID 10 E SAC 35 ESE CEC EUG RDM DLS OLM CLM ...CONT... 65 NW FCA FCA
3DU MQM 10 ESE PIH 10 SSE SLC MTJ 50 SSW ALS SAF 4CR 75 S MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MIA 65 NNE EYW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
NEGATIVE-TILTED H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  REMNANTS OF THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER
WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT/ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS VA/NC
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH DE/SERN PA AND OFF THE VA/NC COAST.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN PA...NJ AND
LONG ISLAND WAS LIKELY OF MARINE ORIGIN /IE MORE STABLE/ GIVEN THE
BACKED SURFACE FLOW.  THUS...THE TSTM LINE SEGMENTS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THESE LOCALES THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE REMOVED FROM THE
SURFACE.  THIS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLD
GUSTY WIND REPORT.

...CNTRL FL...
PLUME OF SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F HAS ADVECTED NEWD ACROSS CNTRL
FL AHEAD OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. LINE OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS FAVORING THE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS VCNTY KTPA.  ISOLD
STORMS MAY REMAIN SEMI-ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAIL...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING...INSTABILITY AND TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

...DESERT SOUTHWEST...
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST 195 W OF KSAN WAS
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE COAST. H5 JET CORE OF 60-70 KTS WRAPPING
AROUND THIS LOW WAS NOSING INTO THE LWR CO RVR VLY WITH A
DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ.  HEATING AND
INFLUX OF MODEST PAC MOISTURE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT HAVE BEEN
FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM SRN CA INTO THE DESERT SW.

AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER NRN SONORA AND MOVE NNEWD INTO AZ.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR ISOLD
DOWNBURSTS/DUST STORMS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY AUGMENT HAIL
PRODUCTION.  THREATS DO NOT SEEM TO MEET CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK...BUT
CERTAINLY WARRANTS A LOW PROBABILISTIC WIND/HAIL THREATS.

...PAC NW...
TSTMS THAT FORMED OVER THE COLUMBIA/YAKIMA RVR VLYS THIS AFTERNOON
BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY
MOVED TOWARD KYKM.  A COLD POOL...HOWEVER...HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  MAINLY
SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS HAVE PASSED.

..RACY.. 04/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.