[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231944
SWODY1
SPC AC 231942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
EWN 20 S OAJ 10 E FAY RDU 25 SSE CHO 25 WNW HGR PSB 20 NNE PSB 30 E
IPT 20 S AVP 15 ESE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
MLB 20 NW AGR 55 NNE PIE 15 SW GNV 20 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CZZ 25 W PMD
NID 10 E SAC 35 ESE CEC EUG RDM DLS OLM CLM ...CONT... 65 NW FCA FCA
3DU MQM 10 ESE PIH 10 SSE SLC MTJ 50 SSW ALS SAF 4CR 75 S MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 30 SSE GSO
35 WSW PSB 30 SSW BUF ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 30 ENE BOS ...CONT... 20
W CTY SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EGE 35 E CAG RWL LAR
FCL DEN COS 50 WSW COS 10 E ASE EGE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA....

...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.  COLD FRONT...SURFACE AND
ALOFT...IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
WITH UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT.  THUS...IT
APPEARS MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF FRONT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED
LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN
THE I-95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA...NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
SPREAD NORTH NORTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER UPPER FORCING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED
INTO/OFF COASTAL AREAS...SHEAR BENEATH 50 TO 70 KT SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL.  AS LINE SOLIDIFIES...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER/MORE STABLE MARINE AIR CLOSER TO
COASTAL AREAS.

...FLORIDA...
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/ CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.  BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG COASTAL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF
MELBOURNE...WHERE INSTABILITY/SHEAR APPEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF BROAD SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION OFF PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. 
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS NOW LIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...AND SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER/COOL MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER
FLOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHLY LOCALIZED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN.

..KERR.. 04/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.