[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231625
SWODY1
SPC AC 231624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
VRB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
HSE 10 NW OAJ 20 NW RDU 40 ENE LYH 10 SW MRB 25 WNW HGR PSB 20 NNE
PSB 30 E IPT 20 S AVP 15 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IPL 30 NNE DAG
10 WSW MER 40 E UKI 35 ESE CEC 10 NW EUG CLM ...CONT... 65 NW FCA 55
SE FCA 20 SE BTM 40 NE IDA 25 SSW EVW 35 SSE CNY 35 WSW 4SL 35 WSW
4CR 50 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 30 SSE GSO
35 WSW PSB 30 SSW BUF ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 30 ENE BOS ...CONT... 20
W CTY 20 NNE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW 4FC 45 NNW 4FC
20 S LAR 15 SSE CYS 35 ENE DEN 30 WSW LIC 10 SSW PUB 50 NNE ALS 45
ENE GUC 25 SW 4FC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
FL....

...MID ATLANTIC AREA...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO FORM THIS MORNING OVER
OH...AND THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND DRIFT EWD TOWARD WRN PA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS WILL ROTATE EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY
TONIGHT...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALSO MOVES OFFSHORE.  

VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE
HEATING W OF THE CIRRUS BAND WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NC/VA.
 AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH 60-70 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  A FEW SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY 17-19Z INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL NC
NWD INTO CENTRAL VA...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE DRY SLOT NWD INTO PA.  EXPECT STORMS TO THEN SPREAD EWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS VA/NC...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. 

...CENTRAL AND N FL...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE...WHILE A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS PERSISTS OVER THE
EXTREME NE GULF.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS FL
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ONGOING STORMS...THOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB. MODEST MID
LEVEL FLOW AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

...NRN GREAT BASIN AREA...
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOI AND LKN SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERTED-V
PROFILES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME WEAK CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM NW NV INTO
SE ORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA MOVING NWD.  EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE VIGOROUS
STORMS.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 04/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.