[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231237
SWODY1
SPC AC 231236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 20
WNW OAJ 35 N SOP 25 ENE LYH 40 SW MRB 15 ENE PSB 25 N AVP 15 NE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
CTY 35 SE JAX ...CONT... 20 SSE VRB 15 S FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW SAN 15 N EDW
35 W BIH 10 WSW RBL 40 WNW MHS 25 NNW HQM ...CONT... 45 NNE 63S 60 N
27U 55 ESE RKS 35 N ALS 45 NNW ROW 50 SW MRF ...CONT... 10 ENE AQQ
50 WNW SAV 40 SW GSO 30 NE SSU 20 SE ZZV 20 NE CLE ...CONT... 20 ENE
EFK 30 ENE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO NC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN/CENTRAL FL...

...MID ATLANTIC...
OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS AND LATEST ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN PA SWD INTO
CENTRAL VA/ERN NC.  SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WRN PA WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NNEWD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL DEVELOP NWD
WITHIN INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT LIKELY TO
BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM CENTRAL NJ ENEWD INTO NWRN PA.

AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 70F AS FAR NORTH AS ERN
PA...WITH 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY OVER ERN NC/SERN VA
EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE REGION BY 18Z.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH AXIS OF 1000+ SBCAPE SPREADING NWD INTO ERN PA
BETWEEN 17-20Z.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD AT NEAR 40 KT ACROSS
REMAINDER OF SLGT RISK AREA.  FAST STORM MOTIONS AND LIKELY
STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL THROUGH ABOUT
02Z WHEN LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT FURTHER SEVERE RISK.

...NRN/CENTRAL FL...
STRONG WLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TODAY...AS SURFACE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES SSEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL FL.  OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
FROM JAX/TBW AND SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY.  HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TODAY.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN WARM/DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
ENSUING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY...AS EVIDENCED ON 12Z SOUNDING FROM
BOI.  THOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
GENERATE SUFFICIENT SBCAPE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SLOW
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT NWD INTO NERN ORE TODAY.
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.