[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230531
SWODY1
SPC AC 230530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
HSE 20 E EWN 20 WNW OAJ 15 NNE FAY 15 WSW RDU 25 SE DAN 50 ESE LYH
40 WSW DCA 20 ENE HGR 40 NNW CXY 20 NNE IPT 25 N AVP 40 NE ABE 30
ESE DOV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
VRB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 45 S CTY 35 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CZZ 35 NNE DAG
30 WSW BIH 45 W RNO 10 NNW MHS 25 NNW HQM ...CONT... 45 NNE 63S 60 N
27U 55 ESE RKS 35 N ALS 45 NNW ROW 50 SW MRF ...CONT... 30 S CEW 25
E MCN 40 SW GSO 30 NE SSU 20 SE ZZV 20 NE CLE ...CONT... 40 N BML 25
SSE AUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD COMPLETING THE PHASING OF TWO VERY
INTENSE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THIS SYSTEM WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX... APPROACHING
100KT AT 500MB...ROTATES AROUND THE WRN/BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE TN VLY. AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES
ACROSS PA AND THEN TRACKS TO NY WHILE UNDERGOING
OCCLUSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS THROUGH THE DAY...AND SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF FL
BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE CONUS...WITH COOL/DRY NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH KEEPING INSTABILITY LOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MS VLY.

DESPITE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY FLOW REGIME...A STRONG AND
PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE MIDDLE U.S.
RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER FIRST STREAMING INLAND FROM  SRN CA
COAST...ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS...TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO
NRN FL EARLY SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK GIVEN
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. WHILE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY
CONVECTION...A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD
IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE MORNING.

AN AXIS OF GREATER HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS BENEATH
THE DRY SLOT...FROM NERN NC TO CNTRL/ERN VA...AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL
PA...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY WHERE
MLCAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL
COOLING OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS AXIS
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH STRONG SLY MID LEVEL JET
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. LINEAR FORCING ALONG FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE EVOLUTION OF A NARROW SQUALL LINE...WITH SEVERE HAIL
DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLGT RISK AREA.

...FL...
WIND GUSTS/HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
BAND SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NRN FL EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG
DESTABILIZATION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SWD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY
FLOW AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

...SWRN/CNTRL AZ..
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WAS PASSING EAST OF AZ EARLY
TODAY AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MODEST SURFACE HEATING TO TAKE PLACE
FROM THE LWR CO RIVER VLY INLAND TO CNTRL AZ BEFORE THE NEXT POCKET
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING
MAINTAINING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND GRADUAL LOW THROUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTENING...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD TSTMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING AND SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND EVENT.

..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.